Thoughts on a Sunday Afternoon, March 28, 2021
This content is for members only
Tag Archive for: Trading for a Living
Industrials Softening
Copper
Some Industrials are acting soft here. For Copper, a decisive decline below 264 would complete a H&S failure pattern with a target of 235. I believe that the decline on Friday was a Wyckoff Sign of Weakness day – and Friday’s high should not be penetrated. I am willing to short Copper if the market provides a measured-risk opportunity.
Silver
I spoke at some length about the Silver chart during this past week’s Member Webinar. The decline on Friday completed a H&S failure pattern with a likely objective of 1360. Factor is short Silver.
Factor Membership
.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:
Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print bookWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentaryAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselvesMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodicallyWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questionsKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of contentAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published.
View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
.
.
###
Being Wrong or Getting Stopped out of a Trade is Fine
Getting stopped out of a trade only to have it work
I receive many inquiries from Factor Members on the subject of getting stopped out of a trade only to have it turn around immediately and work. This has happened to me hundreds of times over the years. Does it bother me?
NO!
It once did – but I matured as a trader. Getting Stopped out of a trade only to have it work is the price to pay for protecting trading capital. It comes with the territory. It is the cost of being a
good risk manager. I put getting stopped into the following perspective:
• The overwhelming proportion of my net profits as a career trader have come from trades that never experienced a hard retest
• There have been hundreds of great trades in the past and there will be hundreds of great trades in the future (if I am around long enough to experience them)
I have the incredible benefit of data from thousands of actual trades. Using active and aggressive trade management guidelines does cost me some good trades. Based on my data, allowing trades more wiggle room would increase my trading profits by about 20% per year. Yet, I have hard data proving that active and aggressive trade management doubles my Profit Factor and Gain-to-Pain Ratio. I believe this trade-off between net profitability and asset volatility is completely worthwhile.
What about being wrong publicly?
In the world of the blogosphere there are distracters and there are people who really want to learn. I am so appreciative of all my readers who want to learn about the markets and trading. I so often see the earnest readers of my blog come to my defense in reply string when a distracter wanders in. I appreciate that. But, remember, everyone has an opinion and that is what makes the market what it is. People have the right to think I am clueless. That is ok, as long as they are polite in the reply string.
Factor Membership
.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:
Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print bookWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentaryAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselvesMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodicallyWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questionsKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of contentAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published.
View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
.
.
###
Jack Schwager – Peter Brandt Interview – Part 3 (Final)
Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 3
Part Three, 45 minutes - Jack interviews Peter: Personal worst trading mistake, getting out of a trade, four pillars of the Factor Service, favorite and least favorite patterns, trading plan now vs. just starting out, worst mistakes traders make. Final interview of the series recorded in December. . https://youtu.be/5JM0uBGnxIE Read MoreJack Schwager – Peter Brandt Interview – Part 2
Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 2
Part 2 of the three part interview series recorded in December. Read More
So you want to become a full-time trader
So you want to become a full-time trader
A frequent question from aspiring traders goes something like this: “How do I know the right time to quit my job in order to become a full-time trader?”
In 1981 I started Factor Trading Co., Inc. with less than $80,000 in trading capital. I consider myself lucky that I did not wash out – that providence dealt me a better hand than I probably deserved. But markets are a lot different today than they were in 1981. I can only offer my own opinion as to what a full-time trader needs today to go out on their own.
If you have a good career doing something else, why rush into full-time trading? Earning a supplemental income as a trader is a nice gig.
If you desire to become a full-time trader, following are what I believe to be the minimum conditions.
1. Your trading account should represent profits you have accumulated from the markets, not savings you have taken from some other endeavor.
2. Your account size should be at least three to four times greater than the amount of annual profits you are expecting to make from trading.
3. You should have at least two years of savings in the bank (other than your trading capital) to cover your living expenses. [Note: This condition is waived if your spouse earns enough to cover living expenses or if your family is independently wealthy.] Depending on trading profits to cover living expenses is a very poor place to start.
4. You should have been profitable the last two consecutive years with Calmar and Gain-to-Pain ratios of at least 1.5 to 1.
5. You should have a complete understanding of the trading plan you will begin using.
6. You should assume a 50% chance that your first year will be a losing year.
Also below is our current list of recommended reading.
- Richard Schabacker – Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits
- Edwards and Magee -Technical Analysis of Stock Trends – Only 6th version or earlier – only first half of the book
- Jack Schwager -Market Wizards series
- Steven Drobny – Inside the House of Money – European version of Market Wizards
- Jack Schwager – Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don’t)
- Nate Silver – The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t
- Nickolas Darvas – How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market
- Peter L Brandt – Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading
- Anything by Michael Lewis
- Malcom Gladwell – Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking
- Mark Douglas – Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude
- Edward Chancellor – Devil Takes the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation
- Brett Steenbarger – The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist
- Steve Nison – Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
- George Soros – The Alchemy of Finance
- Nassim Taleb – Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
New to Forex and Futures Markets
Currency Trading for Dummies
Trading Futures for Dummies
Jack Schwager – A Complete Guide to the Futures Market: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads and Options
Factor Membership
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:
Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print bookWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentaryAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselvesMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodicallyWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questionsKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of contentAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is publishedView your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
###
Converting from a part-time trader to a full-time trader
This content is for members only
Peter Brandt’s Charting Tool
Peter’s Crypto Coverage
