Tag Archive for: H&S Pattern

Tweet Storm

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While on Twitter last night, I engaged followers in an unscripted Q&A session.  The exercise was quite enjoyable in fact and we thought we would share the experience on the website today.    Here is a transcript of that Tweet Storm for you.

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

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View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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A Final Move

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The dominant chart construction in Gold continues to be the possibility of an inverted H&S bottom pattern on the weekly and monthly graphs.  Note: Some of you might have read that Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) is accumulating a sizable position in GLD. I believe Dalio will be right, but that he is early. See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-13/ray-dalio-goes-gold-buying-spree-adds-575-gld-holdings-becomes-8th-largest-holder

 

 

 

I have written extensively about the possibility of a Q1 low at or just above 1200. The daily chart displays a possible continuation descending triangle. Depending upon how/time of day this pattern is completed I may be willing to take a shot at the short side.

 

 

SILJ – Jr.  Silver MinerETF chart hasbroken down

 

The weekly chart of PureFunds ISE Junior Miners (SILJ) displays a completed 14-month descending triangle. Factor is short with a target at 6.41

 

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Factor Membership

.
Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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A Collection of Member Q&A’s

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Member Q&A's with 40+ years of insight

 
The below are just a few (of hundreds) Q&A's we receive at the Factor Service.  We thought you might find some of these helpful.
Question:Peter, could you condense as briefly as possible the approach you take to trading? Read More
US Dollar Index - Peter Brandt

A Possible Turn in Direction

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$US Dollar Index

The US Dollar market continues to form a 3-month inverted H&S bottom on the daily graph.  I have been anticipating a right shoulder low for late October, so have I was hoping for a bigger dip into the right shoulder low.
I am earnestly seeking a buying opportunity in this market and will go long on an upside completion of the H&S bottom.
 

Stock Market Index – Nasdaq

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U.S Stock Market Index – NASDAQ

You can’t keep a good dog down. There are some wonderful traders I follow that have been calling for imminent collapse of the U.S. stock market index. They offer very sound, thoughtful, thorough and persuasive reasons why the U.S. stock market should not be at present levels. They have even doubled down in recent weeks on their bets. The problem is that the U.S. stock market could care less about the thinking these traders hold forth. They will likely be right … eventually. But price is always King.

Personally, I believe the U.S. stock market is in the final blow-off in the bull market that began in early 2009 – but blow-offs can be very rewarding for longs capable of catching the eventual turn in trend. The NASDAQ index is constructing a possible H&S failure pattern on the daily graph – requiring a decisive close above the right shoulder high at 4897. A H&S failure pattern would establish a profit target of 5123.

 

US Stock Market Index NASDAQ - Factor Trading Peter Brandt

 

I am interested in this possible buy signal if I can find a low risk way to play it. H&S failure patterns are not unknown to the NASDAQ Index. In fact, a massive H&S failure pattern was completed on the weekly graph in Jul (see below). If I do not find a spot to buy NASDAQ with less than a 20 or so point risk I will just watch the balloons float away.
US Stock Market Index NASDAQ - Factor Trading Peter Brandt

 

 

Factor Membership

 

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading.  Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

 

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Perfect Soybean Oil

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Soybean Oil futures

  This blog post is relation to the H&S Soybean Oil pattern identified within the post from September 12th https://www.peterlbrandt.com/soybean-oil-next/ The weekly Soybean Oil continuation graph has completed one of the most perfect textbook H&S bottom patterns I have seen in 41 years following futures markets.   Perfect Soybean Oil - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt Read More
platinum continues to shine - peter brandt - factor trading

Platinum Continues to Shine

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Platinum Bull Market

The dominant chart construction in Platinum is the completed 9-month H&S bottom on the weekly and daily graphs with an implied profit target of 1179. Note the near perfect Apr 25 retest of the neckline on the daily chart. The strength on Apr 28 goes a long way to confirm the H&S bottom interpretation.  Is this a Platinum bull market!

 

Platinum bull market - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt - Platinum Chart $PL_F

 

Platinum bull market - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt - Platinum Chart $PL_F 2

Factor Trading is long Platinum and well positioned with a protective stop in place.  To consider Factor Membership options, please visit our home page for further details.  https://www.peterlbrandt.com

 

plb

 

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Apple (AAPL) – Head and Shoulders above the rest.

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Apple (AAPL) – Head and Shoulders (Pattern) above the rest.

 

As a trader, my favorite chart configuration is the Head and Shoulders. The H&S pattern is easily recognizable (although for reasons I will not go into here, the novice chartist falsely finds the H&S form everywhere), produces far more reliable trading signals than more frequent patterns and is found at major turning points.

Apple has formed H&S patterns at many major turning points in recent years. The Factor has identified, alerted members and traded many of the following H&S patterns in real time.

Chart traders need to keep their eyes on Apple. The H&S pattern, when it occurs in Apple, is always worth a trade. Truly, Apple is head and shoulders above the rest.

Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern Apple - $APPL H&S Head and Shoulders pattern

 

Factor trading tactics explained

Identifying a pattern is a relatively easy task in which to gain competence. Trading a pattern once identified – now that is a horse of a different color.

How many times have you heard another trader say (or said to yourself): “I knew that stock XYZ was going to go up, and it did, but I did not make a dime on the move?”

Trade signaling, in my opinion, is far less important to net profitability than is proper trading tactics and aggressive risk management protocols.

Factor LLC, in its proprietary account, traded two of the H&S pattern featured herein as follows (adjusted for splits, not adjusted for commissions):

 

2015 H&S top sell signal

Shorted the close on Aug 3 at 116.68 with an initial risk to 122.31, or a risk of $5.63 per share. The target was

103.22. Factor risked 60 basis points on the trade (6/10th of 1%), or $6,000 per $1MM of trading capital. A 60 BP trade represented a 1,000 shares position (actual initial risk was $5,630 per $1MM).

The protective stop was moved to 116.82 after the close on Aug 21. Factor takes profits when targets are met. The target was exceed with a gap down open on Aug 24 at 93.98. Factor maintains open orders to take profits at target levels. The profit for the trade was

$22,700 or 227 BPs.

 

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2010 H&S top sell signal — then 2010 H&S failure buy signal

  • Shorted 2900 shares on the Aug 24 close at 31.71 with 60 BP risk to 33.71. Stopped out on the Sep 3 opening at 33.76 for loss of $5950 per $1MM, or 60
  • Factor considers the failure of a H&S top pattern to be a buy signal. Bought 2400 shares on Sep 3 at

34.24 with 60 BP risk to 31.79 and target of 40.79. AAPL reached target on Oct 15. The profit for the trade was $15,720 per $1MM or 157 BPs.

 

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plb

 

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