Tag Archive for: Gold

Silver Bull Market - Factor - Peter Brandt

Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market

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Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market

Silver and Gold have made some decisive moves of late.  It must be emphasized that the long-term trend in Silver and Gold is up.  I believe we are now witnessing a Silver Bull Market and a Gold Bull Market.  Despite the fact I have preferred the long side of Silver over the long side of Gold, I have grossly underestimated the power of this Silver trend. Thus, a reappraisal of the Silver chart is in order.

The advance on Jun 29 met the target of 18.52 established by the Apr 12 completion of an 8-month H&S bottom. As a result, Factor is now flat in Silver. This trade ended up as a 554 BP profit, thus establishing Silver as a qualified member of the 2016 Best Dressed List and a Bottom-Line trade for Factor.

Silver Bull Market

It is possible to interpret the strength in Silver this past week as the completion of a possible 33-month H&S bottom with an extremely abbreviated right shoulder. The target of this pattern is 22.40, although a retest of the 2011 and 2012 lows just above 26.00 is very possible.  I am most interested in buying a meaning correction in Silver, although I doubt that a hard retest of 18.00 (right shoulder high) will occur. Traders who focus on Fibonacci corrections should remain alert.

 

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Gold Bull Market

The broadening pattern is typically reversal in nature. Very rarely will a continuation broadening pattern occur. The advance in Gold in early Feb 2016 completed a 16-month falling wedge bottom with a target of 1392, as shown on the first daily chart shown below.

 

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The advance on Friday reconfirmed the likelihood that the broadening triangle is continuation in nature — with a target of 1407. Thus, the next target in the bull Gold market is in the 1392 to 1407 zone. Factor established a long position in Gold on Friday afternoon.

 

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Factor Membership is now available and the Silver Bull Market and Gold Bull Market will be of prominent focus.  You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.   Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about.  For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Silver and Gold

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Factor Update – July 3, 2016

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CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) impact on Gold | Peter Brandt 4

Does the current CFTC COT Report forecast a decline in Gold prices?

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CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) Report Forecast a Gold Decline?

In recent past, I have cited the CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) report's record open interest by large specs and record short open interest by commercials as a possible negative for Gold prices. Never one to trust myself, I decided to dig deeper to find out if my claim held water.
In fact, there is no recent evidence that such extremes in commercial shorts and large spec longs are negative factors on subsequent price action.
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Do the CFTC COT data forecast a decline in Gold prices?

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In recent Factor communications I have cited the record large open interest by large specs and record short open interest by commercials as a possible negative for Gold prices. Never one to trust myself, I decided to dig deeper to find out if my claim held water.
In fact, there is no recent evidence that such extremes in commercial shorts and large spec longs are negative factors on subsequent price action.
Read More

Factor Update – May 29, 2016

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Factor Alert – Forex and other markets

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This Alert provides my current thinking on the overall technical condition of specified markets.
U.S. Dollar Index
The sustained advance from the 3 May low in the DX is EXACTLY what I would expect from a major bear trap. The shorts are trapped and the market senses blood in the water. This explains the nature of the recent rally -- not allowing shorts to cover on a reasonable break. The second chart shows that the large spec shorts (funds) remain heavily short while the commercials remain heavily long. DX should remain relatively well bid until prices reach 98 to 99. I expect major resistance at 100 to 101. Factor is fully long the Dollar Index.
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Factor Update – May 22, 2016

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Factor Update – May 15, 2016

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