Factor Update – August 14, 2016
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Tag Archive for: Gold
Precious metals, Wheat, GBP, Cotton and Sugar
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Factor Update – August 7, 2016
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Factor Update – July 31, 2016
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Is rain predicted for the Silver bull market parade?
It is not my intent to make it rain on the Silver bull market parade -- nor should this email be taken as a prediction -- but all-time record levels of speculative long (or short) positions and commercial short (or long) positions MUST be taken seriously.
Keep in mind that record CFTC COT levels, in and of themselves, do not demand a reversal of trend. In fact, some of the biggest moves in history have come from capitulation by commercial traders.
Nevertheless, consider several other recent examples of record (or near record) speculative long (or short) positions and commercial short (or long) positions.
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Read MoreFactor Update – July 24, 2016
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Factor Update – July 17, 2016
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Factor Update – July 10, 2016
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Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market
Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market
Silver and Gold have made some decisive moves of late. It must be emphasized that the long-term trend in Silver and Gold is up. I believe we are now witnessing a Silver Bull Market and a Gold Bull Market. Despite the fact I have preferred the long side of Silver over the long side of Gold, I have grossly underestimated the power of this Silver trend. Thus, a reappraisal of the Silver chart is in order.
The advance on Jun 29 met the target of 18.52 established by the Apr 12 completion of an 8-month H&S bottom. As a result, Factor is now flat in Silver. This trade ended up as a 554 BP profit, thus establishing Silver as a qualified member of the 2016 Best Dressed List and a Bottom-Line trade for Factor.
Silver Bull Market
It is possible to interpret the strength in Silver this past week as the completion of a possible 33-month H&S bottom with an extremely abbreviated right shoulder. The target of this pattern is 22.40, although a retest of the 2011 and 2012 lows just above 26.00 is very possible. I am most interested in buying a meaning correction in Silver, although I doubt that a hard retest of 18.00 (right shoulder high) will occur. Traders who focus on Fibonacci corrections should remain alert.
Gold Bull Market
The broadening pattern is typically reversal in nature. Very rarely will a continuation broadening pattern occur. The advance in Gold in early Feb 2016 completed a 16-month falling wedge bottom with a target of 1392, as shown on the first daily chart shown below.
The advance on Friday reconfirmed the likelihood that the broadening triangle is continuation in nature — with a target of 1407. Thus, the next target in the bull Gold market is in the 1392 to 1407 zone. Factor established a long position in Gold on Friday afternoon.
Factor Membership is now available and the Silver Bull Market and Gold Bull Market will be of prominent focus. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
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Silver and Gold
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