This Alert provides my current thinking on the overall technical condition of specified markets.
U.S. Dollar Index
The sustained advance from the 3 May low in the DX is EXACTLY what I would expect from a major bear trap. The shorts are trapped and the market senses blood in the water. This explains the nature of the recent rally -- not allowing shorts to cover on a reasonable break. The second chart shows that the large spec shorts (funds) remain heavily short while the commercials remain heavily long. DX should remain relatively well bid until prices reach 98 to 99. I expect major resistance at 100 to 101. Factor is fully long the Dollar Index.
The stock index markets are becoming quite interesting from a classical charting perspective.
The DJ Euro Stoxx chart displays a possible continuation symmetrical triangle pattern. This triangle is arguably serving as a retest of a H&S top. I say "arguably" because a H&S top ideally should reverse a previous advancing trend. As seen on the weekly graph, it is hard to argue that the advance from the 2009 and 2011 lows is hardly the type of bull trend that normally precedes a major top pattern.
Factor Alert – Forex and other markets
/by Peter BrandtFactor Update – May 22, 2016
/by Peter BrandtMisc Stock Index Markets
/by Peter BrandtFactor Update – May 15, 2016
/by Peter BrandtFactor Update – May 8, 2016
/by Peter Brandt