Factor Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live August 16, 2018Opening discussion/presentation by Peter
Twitter
Public obsessions
Market review
Live questions from Members
Do you think fix bet size (risk per trade) can improve performance? 11:12
What were the main challenges early in to your career between age of 32 to 35. 13:37
Do you consider Long USD trades and Long treasuries a positive corrected trade? 16:25
How do you overcome the fear/hesitant when buy/sell signal is triggered? How to overcome the discipline to stay on the trade plan.If the trade signal is rare, I start to take suboptimal (lesser quality) trade. I realize it after I took it and lost money. 17:03
How do you typically trade/pyramid multiple contracts? 20:38
When did you first get the confidence to apply such an aggressive stop style? 21:53
How many basis points are you currently risking on the various patterns? 23:04
Do you have any physical/mental exercise in the beginning of your career? 25:50
You often reference that you are looking for an entry but are waiting to see an opportunity risk/reward entry.Can you help me understand more precisely what you are looking for, specifically considering that you say that one shouldn't be constantly monitoring the market. 26:56
Overnight risk - How do you protect yourself for the gap if you don't activate the stop in most of the markets overnight? What if in the overnight market your 60 basis points risk tolerance has become 150 basis point, and that creates a gap at the open for a big loss? At that point do you exit right at the open or do you wait and see? Is there a list of markets that you think overnight stop orders are OK. Is overnight order to be stopped into a position OK? 29:44
I have been reading your book in depth (ever since the conference in May in FL).I managed to get 5th and 6th Edition of Edwards & Magee's book "Technical analysis of stock trends" - I know you say to read first half of the book.But which section is this.Are you talking about the book being split into Part One and the chapters in it. Part 2 has some chart topics too...or should I only focus on Part 1 area and which is better book Edition 6 or 5? 32:48
Can you tell us your experience with limit up/limit down? Does it still happen? How would we prepare ourselves to be never caught up by them if/when it happens again? 34:20
Thoughts on: 1. Dow - with yields expected to go lower and a rotation into industrials, do the charts support the thesis that YM would be the preferred long in US equities? 2. Platinum: positioning in PL is extreme and we seem to be close to capitulation. Are you watching this market? 35:28
I understand the goal is to move stop to break even as soon as one can. But is there a rule to follow? Any systematic way to think about it? 4-hour chart support? Daily movement percentage? Can you show us some recent example? 37:38
Can you give any advice on what brokers, etc. to use to trade cryptos? 40:07
Right now, IF I want to short oil, is it better to go with Brent or WTI? Why? I'm more interested in your thinking and not really taking a shot right away. 41:39
I'm a new trader and your "Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results" really hit home with me. Where can I find the calculation details you used so I can run different scenarios? 42:44
Where can we get more info on: 1. Volume in conjunction with H&S or other breakouts 2. interpretation of COT profile, Commercial long and Spec short 43:44
How would you rate the current environment in terms of trading richness? 44:35
Who do you trade Cash FX with? 45:37
Whats your decision process to long S&P500 vs Russel, NASDAQ100 or Dow? 47:05
Can you elaborate more specifically on issues you have with calling H&S pattern in $EUR-USD? 48:21
Can you show the NZD/USD trade, and where you would set stops along the way.Also with the big margin $38K, contrast that to doing 6N futures instead. 49:42
Why it is difficult to make money in market? From your experience, why are the majority losing traders? 51:06
Do you have a certain way of journaling each trade? Do you have an exact trading plan written down and referenced often? 54:55
Do you play any card games or have, that you may think helped you blackjack / poker? 55:36
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Member-only-QA-this-Thursday-February-9th-at-11am-Mountain.jpg523800Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2018-08-25 17:05:112018-08-25 17:05:11Factor Member Webinar August 2018
Factor Member Q&A with Peter L. Brandt - Recorded live July 17, 2018Opening discussion/presentation by Peter
Factor Tracking Account Update
Live questions from Members
What are your thoughts on the current movement in gold? 11:06
Does Peter think to have a macro perspective (for example, follow things like RealVision) is an advantage when trading Factor principles or a disadvantage? 13:39
Wedges: preceding action - Sometimes wedges form after a strong move in the opposite direction. 15:32
Would you have made more money if you had traded Stocks only? 16:29
Do you trade the commission or non-commission forex pairs usually? 17:23
This is a two part question. In one of your recent newsletters, you mentioned that you have changed to trade management approach during the last few years, namely selling half when reach 100bp in profit and raising stop to even as soon as possible. But that selling half into strength part is not always included in your Factor analysis. So my question is 1. Do you do this differently in your prop account, but not in the Factor account? 2. How do you reconcile that by selling half earlier, it will be much more difficult to get the "bottom liners"? 18:22
How much emphasis do you place on volume these days? Can you please speak a bit more how you view/use volume when trading futures/forex? 22:45
Do you or have you ever looked at Fibonacci analysis? If so, which levels have you found to be most consistent (even though you might choose not to use them at this stage)? 25:00
How you decide to move stops, did not understand the real tight move in the IWM based on volatility. 25:29
I understand that Peter has been cutting down trade size dramatically since about the book "Diary" time. The main reason behind that is because Peter is approaching the retirement age or he simply believes the time has changed and trader shouldn't take 3% loss anymore. 27:54
I’m curious to your average risk sizing YTD. Seems like LDR has been difficult to apply on $100k account size. Are you applying different initial risk tactics recently? 29:05
You've mentioned that you don't trade single name equities and from what I recall that decision is driven by the leverage that can be applied. Am I correct in my recollection? If you could lever single name equities like futures would you trade them? 32:16 (Link to document referenced https://www.peterlbrandt.com/trading-futures-forex-related-etfs-foolish-use-capital/)
The death cross of the 30 week MA and the 50 week MA will happen in around 3 weeks. In case that the $5750 was the market bottom what are the possibles outcomes which the market could react when the death cross happens? Usually the market makes lower lows when this happens. 33:35
How do balance aggressive risk management with "letting winners run”? 33:53
Double tops / bottoms - I don't see many of these on your reports. Is there any particular reason for t his? 36:22
Both E&M and Schabacker were written with single stocks in mind and with the Daily charts as primary tool of analysis. Your Q&A says (And this is clear from your reports) you don't generally follow single stocks. E&M and Schabacker were very confident that these methods work for single stocks. Do you think they work less well nowadays? Or do you think someone who applies your trading methods to liquid single stock should achieve similar returns to what you achieve on currencies, stock indices and commodities? E&M required a 3% margin of safety to accept a trading signal. Do you think that is still optimal for single stocks? 37:26
You've mentioned your experience of loneliness while trading - How do you address this? Outside of the Factor Community, how have you built and managed relationships as a lonely trader? 41:09
When do you consider fundamentals or look at fundamentals? If you don't how do you manage the media/news/information around fundamentals? 42:58
What makes you think your strategy needs adjustment and how often do you review your strategies for adjustment? 44:33
If BTC has an INTRADAY WBB Candle breaking out above $6829 (completing the 5 Week H&S Bottom) combined with Volume Breakout and Diverging Bollinger Band s, how sure can we be that it does not come back under 6829 by 00:00 UTC (end of day)? What is the strategy for that? Stop-Loss at ~$6750? 46:38
The H&S failure is the only failure that you actually trade. Since so many of the formations fail - by your own admission you expect a trade to fail at inception, as the winning percentage is below 50% - do those failures themselves present trading opportunities with manageable risk? 51:14
Would you have traded Feeder Cattle Head and Shoulders. I did today and got stopped out. 52:26
You mentioned the other week that over time you’ve added chart patterns to your library, and gave one example of “ottoman with chair”. Would you be able to share th e other with us over time/in a special piece. 53:18
How do you determine how many bps of risk you will apply to each trade? For an account size of $250,000, trading only equities, how much do you recommend each position size be around? 53:53
Can you please speak to moving stops once position has gone your way? 55:05
Do you trade BTC futures through an exchange and if so which one do you use? 56:40
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Member-only-QA-this-Thursday-February-9th-at-11am-Mountain.jpg523800Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2018-07-27 07:44:512018-07-30 12:43:27Factor Member Webinar July 17, 2018
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-24-at-6.49.17-AM.png111344Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2018-02-19 17:45:242018-03-02 17:53:40The Economic Times February 19, 2018
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Screen-Shot-2017-10-24-at-6.49.17-AM.png111344Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2018-02-14 17:41:462018-03-02 17:54:41The Economic Times February 14, 2018
Peter Brandt is a classical chartist and has been a trading legend in the foreign exchange and futures markets since 1975. In this exclusive five-part series, Peter shares his knowledge and the framework he has developed to trade successfully with chart-based analysis.
Our exclusive series chronicling the life and career of classical chartist and trading legend Peter Brandt concludes with Episode 5 – The Process of Trading. In this episode, Peter breaks down the “dead serious” business of trading, running through his process every step of the way in a typical week at Factor Trading. It’s a process that has been enduringly successful with a track record of 40% returns over a 40-plus year career.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Screen-Shot-2018-01-10-at-9.42.20-AM.png7091269Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2018-01-10 10:44:382018-01-10 10:46:00A Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE FIVE – THE PROCESS OF TRADING
Factor Member Webinar August 2018
/by Peter Brandt- Twitter
- Public obsessions
- Market review
Live questions from Members- Do you think fix bet size (risk per trade) can improve performance? 11:12
- What were the main challenges early in to your career between age of 32 to 35. 13:37
- Do you consider Long USD trades and Long treasuries a positive corrected trade? 16:25
- How do you overcome the fear/hesitant when buy/sell signal is triggered? How to overcome the discipline to stay on the trade plan. If the trade signal is rare, I start to take suboptimal (lesser quality) trade. I realize it after I took it and lost money. 17:03
- How do you typically trade/pyramid multiple contracts? 20:38
- When did you first get the confidence to apply such an aggressive stop style? 21:53
- How many basis points are you currently risking on the various patterns? 23:04
- Do you have any physical/mental exercise in the beginning of your career? 25:50
- You often reference that you are looking for an entry but are waiting to see an opportunity risk/reward entry. Can you help me understand more precisely what you are looking for, specifically considering that you say that one shouldn't be constantly monitoring the market. 26:56
- Overnight risk - How do you protect yourself for the gap if you don't activate the stop in most of the markets overnight? What if in the overnight market your 60 basis points risk tolerance has become 150 basis point, and that creates a gap at the open for a big loss? At that point do you exit right at the open or do you wait and see? Is there a list of markets that you think overnight stop orders are OK. Is overnight order to be stopped into a position OK? 29:44
- I have been reading your book in depth (ever since the conference in May in FL). I managed to get 5th and 6th Edition of Edwards & Magee's book "Technical analysis of stock trends" - I know you say to read first half of the book. But which section is this. Are you talking about the book being split into Part One and the chapters in it. Part 2 has some chart topics too...or should I only focus on Part 1 area and which is better book Edition 6 or 5? 32:48
- Can you tell us your experience with limit up/limit down? Does it still happen? How would we prepare ourselves to be never caught up by them if/when it happens again? 34:20
- Thoughts on: 1. Dow - with yields expected to go lower and a rotation into industrials, do the charts support the thesis that YM would be the preferred long in US equities? 2. Platinum: positioning in PL is extreme and we seem to be close to capitulation. Are you watching this market? 35:28
- I understand the goal is to move stop to break even as soon as one can. But is there a rule to follow? Any systematic way to think about it? 4-hour chart support? Daily movement percentage? Can you show us some recent example? 37:38
- Can you give any advice on what brokers, etc. to use to trade cryptos? 40:07
- Right now, IF I want to short oil, is it better to go with Brent or WTI? Why? I'm more interested in your thinking and not really taking a shot right away. 41:39
- I'm a new trader and your "Introduction to Probability Theory and the Random Distribution of Results" really hit home with me. Where can I find the calculation details you used so I can run different scenarios? 42:44
- Where can we get more info on: 1. Volume in conjunction with H&S or other breakouts 2. interpretation of COT profile, Commercial long and Spec short 43:44
- How would you rate the current environment in terms of trading richness? 44:35
- Who do you trade Cash FX with? 45:37
- Whats your decision process to long S&P500 vs Russel, NASDAQ100 or Dow? 47:05
- Can you elaborate more specifically on issues you have with calling H&S pattern in $EUR-USD? 48:21
- Can you show the NZD/USD trade, and where you would set stops along the way. Also with the big margin $38K, contrast that to doing 6N futures instead. 49:42
- Why it is difficult to make money in market? From your experience, why are the majority losing traders? 51:06
- Do you have a certain way of journaling each trade? Do you have an exact trading plan written down and referenced often? 54:55
- Do you play any card games or have, that you may think helped you blackjack / poker? 55:36
Read MoreFactor Member Webinar July 17, 2018
/by Peter Brandt- Factor Tracking Account Update
Live questions from Members- What are your thoughts on the current movement in gold? 11:06
- Does Peter think to have a macro perspective (for example, follow things like RealVision) is an advantage when trading Factor principles or a disadvantage? 13:39
- Wedges: preceding action - Sometimes wedges form after a strong move in the opposite direction. 15:32
- Would you have made more money if you had traded Stocks only? 16:29
- Do you trade the commission or non-commission forex pairs usually? 17:23
- This is a two part question. In one of your recent newsletters, you mentioned that you have changed to trade management approach during the last few years, namely selling half when reach 100bp in profit and raising stop to even as soon as possible. But that selling half into strength part is not always included in your Factor analysis. So my question is 1. Do you do this differently in your prop account, but not in the Factor account? 2. How do you reconcile that by selling half earlier, it will be much more difficult to get the "bottom liners"? 18:22
- How much emphasis do you place on volume these days? Can you please speak a bit more how you view/use volume when trading futures/forex? 22:45
- Do you or have you ever looked at Fibonacci analysis? If so, which levels have you found to be most consistent (even though you might choose not to use them at this stage)? 25:00
- How you decide to move stops, did not understand the real tight move in the IWM based on volatility. 25:29
- I understand that Peter has been cutting down trade size dramatically since about the book "Diary" time. The main reason behind that is because Peter is approaching the retirement age or he simply believes the time has changed and trader shouldn't take 3% loss anymore. 27:54
- I’m curious to your average risk sizing YTD. Seems like LDR has been difficult to apply on $100k account size. Are you applying different initial risk tactics recently? 29:05
- You've mentioned that you don't trade single name equities and from what I recall that decision is driven by the leverage that can be applied. Am I correct in my recollection? If you could lever single name equities like futures would you trade them? 32:16 (Link to document referenced https://www.peterlbrandt.com/trading-futures-forex-related-etfs-foolish-use-capital/)
- The death cross of the 30 week MA and the 50 week MA will happen in around 3 weeks. In case that the $5750 was the market bottom what are the possibles outcomes which the market could react when the death cross happens? Usually the market makes lower lows when this happens. 33:35
- How do balance aggressive risk management with "letting winners run”? 33:53
- Double tops / bottoms - I don't see many of these on your reports. Is there any particular reason for t his? 36:22
- Both E&M and Schabacker were written with single stocks in mind and with the Daily charts as primary tool of analysis. Your Q&A says (And this is clear from your reports) you don't generally follow single stocks. E&M and Schabacker were very confident that these methods work for single stocks. Do you think they work less well nowadays? Or do you think someone who applies your trading methods to liquid single stock should achieve similar returns to what you achieve on currencies, stock indices and commodities? E&M required a 3% margin of safety to accept a trading signal. Do you think that is still optimal for single stocks? 37:26
- You've mentioned your experience of loneliness while trading - How do you address this? Outside of the Factor Community, how have you built and managed relationships as a lonely trader? 41:09
- When do you consider fundamentals or look at fundamentals? If you don't how do you manage the media/news/information around fundamentals? 42:58
- What makes you think your strategy needs adjustment and how often do you review your strategies for adjustment? 44:33
- If BTC has an INTRADAY WBB Candle breaking out above $6829 (completing the 5 Week H&S Bottom) combined with Volume Breakout and Diverging Bollinger Band s, how sure can we be that it does not come back under 6829 by 00:00 UTC (end of day)? What is the strategy for that? Stop-Loss at ~$6750? 46:38
- The H&S failure is the only failure that you actually trade. Since so many of the formations fail - by your own admission you expect a trade to fail at inception, as the winning percentage is below 50% - do those failures themselves present trading opportunities with manageable risk? 51:14
- Would you have traded Feeder Cattle Head and Shoulders. I did today and got stopped out. 52:26
- You mentioned the other week that over time you’ve added chart patterns to your library, and gave one example of “ottoman with chair”. Would you be able to share th e other with us over time/in a special piece. 53:18
- How do you determine how many bps of risk you will apply to each trade? For an account size of $250,000, trading only equities, how much do you recommend each position size be around? 53:53
- Can you please speak to moving stops once position has gone your way? 55:05
- Do you trade BTC futures through an exchange and if so which one do you use? 56:40
Mentioned in webinar hikkake pattern 8:48 Read MoreThe Economic Times February 19, 2018
/by Peter BrandtThe Economic Times February 14, 2018
/by Peter BrandtA Real Vision Video Series with Peter Brandt EPISODE FIVE – THE PROCESS OF TRADING
/by Peter Brandt