The Public Blog site

Picking Tops and Bottoms

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ETH/USD

I want to use Ethereum to make a couple of points. If I were to add up the composite results of every trade I have made over the years that were not confirmed by a simple moving average, the figure would be negative – a big negative. By contrast, most of my large gains over the years have come from trades supported by a simple MA.

The entire advance in $ETH from early Nov 2017 through the Jan 2018 high was supported by a simple MA. Similarly, the entire decline from the late Jan 2018 high to the present has been supported by a simple MA (additionally, classical charting principles have flashed no fewer than four sell signals beginning on Feb 1).

I have no desire as a trader to pick tops and bottoms. I am very comfortable making my living between the 30-yard lines – and almost all trades between the 30-yard lines are confirmed by a simple MA. As such, the idea of considering a long position in ETH at present levels is completely foreign to me.

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

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View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Forex Ideas Peter Brandt

Forex Ideas

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Forex Ideas

Below are some interesting Forex ideas I’ve been tracking.

GBP/AUD — the advance on Friday completed a 14-week Cup and Handle buy signal in this forex cross. I am interested in buying a slight retest of this pattern if given the opportunity, but I will not chase the advance.   I would limit my risk on this trade to 40 basis points.

 

forex ideas peter brandt factor gbp

 

New Zealand Dollar futures

The daily chart is forming a textbook symmetrical triangle top pattern. I typically do not like trading the symmetrical triangle pattern, but in this case the lower boundary is horizontal enough that I am interested in the short side.

 

forex ideas peter brandt factor nzd

 

Mexican Peso futures

The monthly graph displays a possible 2+ year H&S bottom – the right shoulder is forming an independent inverted H&S as seen on the weekly and daily graphs. Factor is flat. I will buy a breakout of the daily chart H&S and then explore extending long leverage should the weekly H&S bottom be completed.

 

forex ideas peter brandt factor peso2

 

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Bitcoin Thaw

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Bitcoin

 

Bitcoin ($BTC) is bumping up against the neckline of an arguable H&S bottom pattern. This is the point at which prices could accelerate … or fail.  A decisive close for Bitcoin above $12,000 is required to complete this pattern – upon which a target of $22,000 would be established.  Factor is currently flat but monitoring the chart for a clue on the next $3,000-plus move.

(Note: Charts are from Friday’s close for the weekend report).

Bitcoin Fork - Peter brandt

 

 

 

Bitcoin Fork - Peter brandt

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Gold Resistance

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Gold’s massive H&S bottom continues to develop, but overhead resistance could be stiff.  The technical significance of the resistance in the 1350 to 1390 zone in Gold cannot be over- stated. This zone has contained rallies in Gold on five occasions (including the current rally), as shown on the weekly chart.

 

 

My bias is that Gold will rip through resistance to commence a new bull trend (see monthly chart).

 

Peter Brandt Gold Resistance

 

Nevertheless, I cannot ignore the possibility that Gold might turn down hard from the overhead resistance – a decline toward 1230 is possible. I will closely monitor Gold with an interest to be long – I may use the London PM Gold fix as a proxy for a breakout.

 

Peter Brandt Gold Resistance Dail

 

Peter Brandt Gold Resistance London Fix

 

 

Prior blog posts on Gold can be found here: https://www.peterlbrandt.com/2018-gold-outlook/

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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10 Yr Bond Yeilds

US 10-Yr

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U.S. 10-Yr T-Notes

 

I have commented in recent Factor updates on the completed 6+ year double top on the monthly chart.  In last week’s (Member) Update I scolded myself for not having placed orders to short a retest of this top. I was not going to make the same mistake this week and a resting sell order was filled on Tuesday’s rally.   Factor is now short.

 

 

Factor Trading - Peter Brandt - US 10yr T notes

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Asian Breakout Ideas

Asia Breakouts

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Some Asian Breakout Ideas

 

The iShares China Index Fund has completed a 10-year massive symmetrical triangle on the monthly graph. By clearing the 2015 high this ETF has an upside target of 71.74. I will buy any slight reaction in this ETF, risking to 44.77.

 

Singapore Index

The Singapore Index (futures) has completed a multi-year rectangle on the monthly graph. I consider this to be a significant bull signal supported by fundamentals. The Shiller CASE Index suggests that Singapore is one of the most undervalued markets globally. I am willing to take a shot at the long side of this market on a retest of 398.1, risking about 75 basis points.

 

 

 

Osaka Nikkei

This one published to Factor members in the past.  The target of 24,010 from the underlying 10-week ascending triangle has been met. Factor remains long a tranche with a revised target of 24,830, having taken profits on a tranche.

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Aussie Dollar - Factor - Peter Brandt

Aussie Aussie Aussie Dollar

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There are reasons to believe the Aussie Dollar has entered a prolonged bullish trend. The period from the Jan 2016 low to present is analogous to the period from Mar 2001 through Jan 2003. An idealized drawing of this pattern – called a “Horn” by Schabacker – is shown within the box on the top chart. [See Schabacker, Study VII.]

 

Aussie Dollar - Factor - Peter Brandt

 

The chart shown below courtesy of Nautilus Capital exhibits a very strong cyclic pattern in the Aussie Dollar — and the cycles are calling for a low.

 

Australian Dollar - Factor - Peter Brandt

 

The daily chart of the Mar futures contract is also shown. Factor is currently flat and I have no desire to chase this current rally.  But I will monitor the Australian Dollar chart for a measured-risk buying opportunity.

Australian Dollar - Factor - Peter Brandt

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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sig

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2018 Gold Outlook

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2018 Gold Outlook

I believe there is a good chance that the precious metals will be an outstanding asset class in 2018 – Gold could outperform Bitcoin in the year ahead. The monthly Gold chart is shown to provide some historic perspective. Notice that the market is still finding its footing after the 2012 violation of its parabolic advance.

 

2018 Gold Outlook - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

The weekly chart (RealRange) displays a possible massive inverted H&S pattern.  I am keenly interested in the long side of 2018 Gold futures. Factor is presently flat.
2018 Gold Outlook - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

A chart courtesy of McClellan Financial indicates that Gold is advancing from 8-year cycle lows.

 

2018 Gold Cycles

Source: http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/golds_8-year_cycle/

 

Also shown are a number of graphs for Gold-related ETFs and gold mining companies.

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

.

sig

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These fish are for trading, not eating (the parable of Bitcoin)

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There once was a fisherman from a small Mediterranean coastal village in Malta.

He sailed out one day and had great luck, catching 300 pounds of bass and rock cod.

That evening he sold the fish to a fish broker in exchange for hard currency.

The next morning the broker, in turn, sold the fish to a wholesaler, in exchange for future credit.

The wholesaler, in turn, sold the fish to several merchants in exchange for building products.

One of the merchants sold some of the fish to a farmer in exchange for grain.

The next day, the farmer, who bought more fish than his family could eat, sold several of the fish to a neighbor in exchange for labor.

The neighbor ate the fish, and got sick.

The neighbor went back to the farmer and said, “I recant my promise for labor, the fish were not healthy for eating.”

The farmer went back to the merchant and said, “I want my grain back, the fish was spoiled.”

The merchant went back to the wholesaler and said, “Please return my building products, the fish were not suited for consumption.”

The wholesaler went back to the broker and said, “I am cancelling your credit, the fish were not eatable.”

The broker went back to the fisherman and said, “I want my hard currency back, the fish you sold me made people sick when they ate it.”

The fisherman just shrugged his shoulders and replied ….”No, you cannot have your money back. Who ever said they were ‘eating’ fish. They were just ‘trading’ fish.”

Moral of the story: There are grand claims being made about the extraordinary future for Bitcoin and other cryptos. Just consider some of the claims of the cryptomaniacs: Cryptos are going to take over the world; the future of global finance/commerce belongs to Bitcoin and (name your favorite 8hitcoin); cryptos will bring governments to their knees; Bitcoin will become more valuable than all the Gold that has ever been mined; and, cryptos will replace all fiat currencies. To some degree these claims may become true. But for now Bitcoin has gained almost no traction as a functional medium. In fact, Bitcoin (and the other cryptos) have almost entirely been a vehicle for price speculation. As such, at least at this time in history Bitcoin and its distant cousins are very little different than a pile of dead fish.

$$

Structural and functional problems with the Cryptocurrency markets

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The cryptocurrency markets are in their infancy – and accordingly suffer many problems that time and technology will resolve. Some of the problems include:

  • Despite the claims of blockchain’s revolutionary technology, it takes far too long for transactions/trades to clear the chain.
  • Opening an account with many crypto exchanges can be a time consuming and frustrating experience.
  • It takes an excessive period of time for deposits to be posted to an account.
  • While coins can be safely held in hard wallets, hard wallets can become lost, stolen or damaged.
  • While coins can be sorted securely on hard wallets, what protects the flat balances at the various exchange from hackers or exchange bankruptcies?
  • Hard wallet depositories are akin to burying Gold in the backyard. It is an irony that cryptos represent the most advanced internet/financial/commercial technology, yet crypto traders are storing millions of dollars on a USB device. REALLY?
  • The bid/offer spreads at many exchanges are far too wide. It is often difficult and time consuming to “cross the spread” (buy at the offer or sell at the bid).
  • The price of the same coin varies considerably from exchange to exchange. This makes charting extremely difficult.
  • Good luck receiving guidance from an exchange’s help desk. In fact, has anyone even spoken by phone to a support person at any exchange?
  • The transaction fees at some exchanges would add time to Bernie Madoff’s sentence.
  • It can take forever to withdraw funds from an exchange – many exchanges limit the amount of each withdrawal and intentionally hold customers funds as long as possible.
  • Moving coins from one exchange to another (either directly or with a hard wallet as the pivot) can be a time consuming activity, preventing aggressive arbitrage operations.
  • The web site/trading platform of some exchanges crash when a trader most needs to place an order.
  • The cryptos are far too volatile. The volatility will prevent wide commercial/institutional acceptance over the long haul.
  • The lack of unified price settlements will also prevent commercial/institutional acceptance.

Feel free to add to this list via Twitter