The Public Blog site

Being Wrong or Getting Stopped out of a Trade is Fine

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Getting stopped out of a trade only to have it work

I receive many inquiries from Factor Members on the subject of getting stopped out of a trade only to have it turn around immediately and work. This has happened to me hundreds of times over the years. Does it bother me?

NO!

It once did – but I matured as a trader. Getting Stopped out of a trade only to have it work is the price to pay for protecting trading capital. It comes with the territory. It is the cost of being a
good risk manager. I put getting stopped into the following perspective:

• The overwhelming proportion of my net profits as a career trader have come from trades that never experienced a hard retest

• There have been hundreds of great trades in the past and there will be hundreds of great trades in the future (if I am around long enough to experience them)

I have the incredible benefit of data from thousands of actual trades. Using active and aggressive trade management guidelines does cost me some good trades. Based on my data, allowing trades more wiggle room would increase my trading profits by about 20% per year. Yet, I have hard data proving that active and aggressive trade management doubles my Profit Factor and Gain-to-Pain Ratio. I believe this trade-off between net profitability and asset volatility is completely worthwhile.

What about being wrong publicly?

In the world of the blogosphere there are distracters and there are people who really want to learn. I am so appreciative of all my readers who want to learn about the markets and trading. I so often see the earnest readers of my blog come to my defense in reply string when a distracter wanders in. I appreciate that. But, remember, everyone has an opinion and that is what makes the market what it is. People have the right to think I am clueless. That is ok, as long as they are polite in the reply string.

 

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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World Stock Markets Are Turning Over

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DAX

The German DAX has completed a H&S top with a down slanted neckline on the weekly chart. H&S tops with down slanted necklines are generally more reliable and powerful than H&S tops with an up slanted neckline.

 

World Stock Markets are turning over - Peter Brandt - Factor

Nifty/INDA

The Nifty 50 has broken its dominant trendline. INDA has completed 15-month H&S top. Factor is short INDA.

 

 

SGX China A50

The dominant chart construction is a possible 15-week rectangle on the daily SGX China A50 chart. I am willing to take a shot at the short side if this pattern is completed.

 

World-Stock-Markets-are-turning-over-china-peter-brandt-factor

 

Taiwan Index

The weekly chart is a textbook example of a complex H&S top pattern. Factor is flat – I count this as a missed trade.

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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interest rate generational low peter brandt factor trading

An Interest Rate Generational Low

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Interest Rates

Being a trader for as long as I have been provides me with a sense of historical significance not possible for newcomers to market speculation. I distinctly remember the high interest rate periods of the 1970s and early 1980s. In fact, I remember the day the top of yields (and bottom of futures) was confirmed by the completion of a large symmetrical triangle (see chart). I remember the day this triangle was completed because I bought the upside breakout in futures. The completion of the H&S bottom on the weekly yield chart now completes the cycle that began in Aug 1982.

 

 

Fast forward to today, the decline below 141^27 on the daily continuation graph completed a H&S bottom failure pattern with a target of 135^11.  The daily chart of the Dec 2018 contract is also shown (with resistance at 139^24 and a target at 135^20.
The decline below 141^27 on the daily continuation graph completed a H&S bottom failure pattern with a target of 135^11. The daily chart of the Dec 2018 contract is also shown (with resistance at 139^24 and a target at 135^20

 

Our friends at Nautilus Capital produced an interesting graph this past week showing that the yield curve of U.S. treasuries is turning up from a cyclic low. This implies that yields at the long end of the curve will advance faster than yields at the short end of the yield curve.

 

 

A Generational Low?

Two chart observations are worthy of note.  First, the advance this past week in yields completed a 4+ year H&S bottom on the weekly chart with targets of 4.37% and 5.03%.  Second, the advance this past week also penetrated the upper boundary of a multi-decade channel.  It is my belief that an Interest Rate Generational Low has been confirmed in yields.

 

Weekly

generational bottom interest rates peter brandt

 

Monthly

 

 

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Crude Oil on the Rise

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WTI

Crude Oil is on the Rise.  The advance on Monday confirmed the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The target is 78.40. The Factor Tracking Account is long the Nov mini WTI contract.
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Trader's Discipline factor Peter brandt

Patience and Discipline – A Trader’s Friend

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Patience … Discipline … Discipline … Discipline … Patience

 

I know my sweet spot. Every trader should strive to know his or her sweet spot.  We should strive to only take a trade when the market set up is in our sweet spot.  We should strive to avoid trades out of our sweet spot.

If you, as a trader, do not know your trade set up with great intimacy, then how in the world will you know if you are exercising patience and discipline?

Once you know exactly what your sweet spot is and is not, then the real challenges begin.
 

The real challenges for me (and it could be different for you) are different
nuances of patience and discipline.

• Patience to wait for just the right set up
• Discipline to sit on the sidelines and not getting pulled into a trade that does not fully satisfy my requirements
• Discipline to pull the trigger when the right trade comes along
• Discipline to remain detached from open positions and properly manage each trade according to trade management guidelines developed over decades of market speculation
• Patience to allow a position with a substantial profit potential the room and time to bear full fruit

 

The above challenges are very, very real. The markets can force a trader to let his or her guard down. The markets are all about forcing traders to make mistakes. Markets are constantly luring traders with such deceptive messages as:

“Trade now and trade often”
“You’re missing out on some good moves”
“The only way to make money is to trade”

 

In fact, there are times when NOT trading can be the action with the best outcome. Trading just to trade often leads to drawdowns. Then comes the urge to find trades in order to recover the drawdown. Often this leads to a worse drawdown. Before a trader knows it he or she can be in a 20% to 30% or greater drawdown resulting from trades that never really qualified as trades in the first place. This is when the the capital drawdown becomes a significant emotional drawdown. Vicious cycles can easily come upon us as traders.

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Gold Possibility

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The possibility continues to exist that Gold is forming a massive inverted H&S pattern on the monthly chart.

However, a close below 1180 would place the possibility of the H&S pattern into doubt. A close below 1124 would suggest a retest of the 2015 low at 1045.

 

Gold possibility - Peter Brandt - Factor Trading

Silver however completes another bear pennant.  The 2015 low of 1363 is now with spitting distance.

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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Clues from the Treasury Markets

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Interest rate markets

U.S. interest rates have experienced a generational low.  The long-term trend is toward higher rates (lower prices).

 

Treasury Markets – T-Notes

The COT profile is at all-time record extremes in terms of Commercial long and Spec short positions. The daily chart displays a 6-month bottom. While I am a long-term bear on Treasury prices (bull on yields), the COT profile and daily chart suggest a sharp rally could be in the works. I will monitor this market for a buying opportunity.

 

Clues from the Treasury Markets - Peter Brandt - Factor 3

 

A rally by the nearby contract to 122^24 would retest the double top on the monthly graph.

 

 

 

Treasury Markets – T-Bonds

A rally on the monthly futures graph to 148^00 would be a retest of the overhead H&S pattern. The daily chart displays a possible inverted H&S bottom. This chart would suggest an advance to 152^00 – and that would go a long way to negate the H&S top on the weekly graph. The monthly T-Bond yield chart (next page) shows that the multi-decade channel remains intact.

The weekly yield chart displays a massive H&S bottom pattern. Resistance in the 3.25% zone has repelled the advances. A 30-year Bond daily print of 3.32% would signal the start of a strong trend toward higher yields (lower futures prices).

 

Clues from the Treasury Markets - Peter Brandt - Factor 2

 

 

Treasury Markets – Bond Yield Charts

 

Clues from the Treasury Markets - Peter Brandt - Factor

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Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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What is Market Breadth Telling Us

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NYA – NYSE Composite

NYA displays a possible 6+ month symmetrical triangle. In my opinion the single most important chart for the U.S. stock market is the NYA cumulative A/D line. This chart indicates that the advance in U.S. equities represents strong market breadth and health.

 

What is Market Breadth Telling Us - Factor - Peter Brandt

 

 

 

Russell 2000

Several chart observations are worthy of note.

  • The advance on May 16 completed a 16-week ascending triangle with targets of 1750 and 1809.
  • The decline from Jun 21 to Jun 28 appears to have been a shallow retest of the ascending triangle.
  • The advance on Jul 5 could have been a “sign-of-strength” (SOS) that the major trend is reasserting

 

Russell What is Market Breadth Telling Us - Factor - Peter Brandt

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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US Stocks - Peter brandt - Factor

U.S Stocks Look Promising

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Russell 2000

U.S Stocks look promising, with the Russell 2000 appears to be leading the upward parade. The Factor is long this market as of last Wednesday. The daily chart of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is shown below after a breakout this past week that was promising.

 

US Stocks Peter Brandt – Factor - Russell 2000

 

US Stocks Peter Brandt - Factor IWM

 

NASDAQ

A 4+ month H&S failure pattern has been completed. The upside target – if the interpretation is correct – is 7775. Factor is long the ETF (QQQ) using this past week’s low for protection.

 

US Stocks Peter Brandt – Factor - QQQ

 

 

S&Ps

The daily chart of S&P futures displays a giant 16-week symmetrical triangle. The S&P chart is much weaker than the charts of the Russell or NASDAQ. For this reason the S&Ps represent the best candidate for a short trade. The price bars on Tuesday, Wednesday and

Thursday formed a potential bearish Hikkake pattern.

[See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikkake_pattern. Long-time friend and Factor member Dan Chesler is recognized as the father of the Hikkake pattern.] I will pay close attention to the S&Ps early next week. I will consider a short trade if a measured risk point can be identified.

 

 

US Stocks Peter Brandt – Factor - SP500

 

 

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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forex

What’s in Your Wallet

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U.S. Dollar Index

The advance this past week exceeded the upside price target of 92.38 and I exited my long position. I will monitor this market for a possible continuation pattern. I believe the U.S. Dollar Index will continue to trend higher. Factor is flat.

 

Forex Factor Peter Brandt

 

Aussie Dollar

The dominant chart construction is the completed 28-month channel on the weekly chart. The general targeting rule for a channel breakdown is that prices will travel a distance equal to the width of the channel (see red parallel lines). The channel is a diagonal pattern – and thus is more difficult to trade than a horizontal pattern. The Factor Tracking Account is short AUD/USD.

 

Forex Factor Peter Brandt

 

 

USD/TRY (Turkish Lira)

The dominant chart construction is the completed 14-month Cup and Handle pattern. Factor is long. I tightened my stop late last week and fully expected to be stopped out. The protective stop survived Monday’s dip and the rally on Tuesday completed a 2-week pennant.

 

 

Forex Factor Peter Brandt

 

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

checkTrading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book
checkWeekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary
checkAlerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves
checkMarket Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically
checkWebinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions
checkKnowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content
checkAutomatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

Factor Trading - An Introduction

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