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Natural Gas - Factor - Peter Brandt

All Fired Up

December 3, 2018/by Peter Brandt

Natural Gas (NYMEX)

This will be on the 2018 Best Dressed List. The daily continuation graph fro Natural Gas displays a possible half-mast coil with a target of 6.1xx.

The Natural gas market may or may not be tradeable depending upon the nature of an upside breakout. Large spindles such as shown on the daily charts present enormous tactical trading problems. Factor is flat.

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

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View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work.

Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Industrials Softening

November 12, 2018/by Peter Brandt

Copper

Some Industrials are acting soft here. For Copper, a decisive decline below 264 would complete a H&S failure pattern with a target of 235. I believe that the decline on Friday was a Wyckoff Sign of Weakness day – and Friday’s high should not be penetrated. I am willing to short Copper if the market provides a measured-risk opportunity.

Silver

I spoke at some length about the Silver chart during this past week’s Member Webinar. The decline on Friday completed a H&S failure pattern with a likely objective of 1360. Factor is short Silver.

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Being Wrong or Getting Stopped out of a Trade is Fine

November 5, 2018/by Peter Brandt

Getting stopped out of a trade only to have it work

I receive many inquiries from Factor Members on the subject of getting stopped out of a trade only to have it turn around immediately and work. This has happened to me hundreds of times over the years. Does it bother me?

NO!

It once did – but I matured as a trader. Getting Stopped out of a trade only to have it work is the price to pay for protecting trading capital. It comes with the territory. It is the cost of being a
good risk manager. I put getting stopped into the following perspective:

• The overwhelming proportion of my net profits as a career trader have come from trades that never experienced a hard retest

• There have been hundreds of great trades in the past and there will be hundreds of great trades in the future (if I am around long enough to experience them)

I have the incredible benefit of data from thousands of actual trades. Using active and aggressive trade management guidelines does cost me some good trades. Based on my data, allowing trades more wiggle room would increase my trading profits by about 20% per year. Yet, I have hard data proving that active and aggressive trade management doubles my Profit Factor and Gain-to-Pain Ratio. I believe this trade-off between net profitability and asset volatility is completely worthwhile.

What about being wrong publicly?

In the world of the blogosphere there are distracters and there are people who really want to learn. I am so appreciative of all my readers who want to learn about the markets and trading. I so often see the earnest readers of my blog come to my defense in reply string when a distracter wanders in. I appreciate that. But, remember, everyone has an opinion and that is what makes the market what it is. People have the right to think I am clueless. That is ok, as long as they are polite in the reply string.

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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World Stock Markets Are Turning Over

October 22, 2018/by Peter Brandt

DAX

The German DAX has completed a H&S top with a down slanted neckline on the weekly chart. H&S tops with down slanted necklines are generally more reliable and powerful than H&S tops with an up slanted neckline.

Nifty/INDA

The Nifty 50 has broken its dominant trendline. INDA has completed 15-month H&S top. Factor is short INDA.

SGX China A50

The dominant chart construction is a possible 15-week rectangle on the daily SGX China A50 chart. I am willing to take a shot at the short side if this pattern is completed.

Taiwan Index

The weekly chart is a textbook example of a complex H&S top pattern. Factor is flat – I count this as a missed trade.

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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interest rate generational low peter brandt factor trading

An Interest Rate Generational Low

October 8, 2018/by Peter Brandt

Interest Rates

Being a trader for as long as I have been provides me with a sense of historical significance not possible for newcomers to market speculation. I distinctly remember the high interest rate periods of the 1970s and early 1980s. In fact, I remember the day the top of yields (and bottom of futures) was confirmed by the completion of a large symmetrical triangle (see chart). I remember the day this triangle was completed because I bought the upside breakout in futures. The completion of the H&S bottom on the weekly yield chart now completes the cycle that began in Aug 1982.

Fast forward to today, the decline below 141^27 on the daily continuation graph completed a H&S bottom failure pattern with a target of 135^11. The daily chart of the Dec 2018 contract is also shown (with resistance at 139^24 and a target at 135^20.

The decline below 141^27 on the daily continuation graph completed a H&S bottom failure pattern with a target of 135^11. The daily chart of the Dec 2018 contract is also shown (with resistance at 139^24 and a target at 135^20

Our friends at Nautilus Capital produced an interesting graph this past week showing that the yield curve of U.S. treasuries is turning up from a cyclic low. This implies that yields at the long end of the curve will advance faster than yields at the short end of the yield curve.

A Generational Low?

Two chart observations are worthy of note. First, the advance this past week in yields completed a 4+ year H&S bottom on the weekly chart with targets of 4.37% and 5.03%. Second, the advance this past week also penetrated the upper boundary of a multi-decade channel. It is my belief that an Interest Rate Generational Low has been confirmed in yields.

Weekly

Monthly

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Crude Oil on the Rise

October 1, 2018/by Peter Brandt

WTI

Crude Oil is on the Rise. The advance on Monday confirmed the symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The target is 78.40. The Factor Tracking Account is long the Nov mini WTI contract.

Trader's Discipline factor Peter brandt

Patience and Discipline – A Trader’s Friend

September 11, 2018/by Peter Brandt

Patience … Discipline … Discipline … Discipline … Patience

I know my sweet spot. Every trader should strive to know his or her sweet spot. We should strive to only take a trade when the market set up is in our sweet spot. We should strive to avoid trades out of our sweet spot.

If you, as a trader, do not know your trade set up with great intimacy, then how in the world will you know if you are exercising patience and discipline?

Once you know exactly what your sweet spot is and is not, then the real challenges begin.

The real challenges for me (and it could be different for you) are different
nuances of patience and discipline.

• Patience to wait for just the right set up
• Discipline to sit on the sidelines and not getting pulled into a trade that does not fully satisfy my requirements
• Discipline to pull the trigger when the right trade comes along
• Discipline to remain detached from open positions and properly manage each trade according to trade management guidelines developed over decades of market speculation
• Patience to allow a position with a substantial profit potential the room and time to bear full fruit

The above challenges are very, very real. The markets can force a trader to let his or her guard down. The markets are all about forcing traders to make mistakes. Markets are constantly luring traders with such deceptive messages as:

“Trade now and trade often”
“You’re missing out on some good moves”
“The only way to make money is to trade”

In fact, there are times when NOT trading can be the action with the best outcome. Trading just to trade often leads to drawdowns. Then comes the urge to find trades in order to recover the drawdown. Often this leads to a worse drawdown. Before a trader knows it he or she can be in a 20% to 30% or greater drawdown resulting from trades that never really qualified as trades in the first place. This is when the the capital drawdown becomes a significant emotional drawdown. Vicious cycles can easily come upon us as traders.

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Gold Possibility

September 4, 2018/by Peter Brandt

The possibility continues to exist that Gold is forming a massive inverted H&S pattern on the monthly chart.

However, a close below 1180 would place the possibility of the H&S pattern into doubt. A close below 1124 would suggest a retest of the 2015 low at 1045.

Gold possibility - Peter Brandt - Factor Trading

Silver however completes another bear pennant. The 2015 low of 1363 is now with spitting distance.

Factor Membership

.

Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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Clues from the Treasury Markets

July 30, 2018/by Peter Brandt

Interest rate markets

U.S. interest rates have experienced a generational low. The long-term trend is toward higher rates (lower prices).

Treasury Markets – T-Notes

The COT profile is at all-time record extremes in terms of Commercial long and Spec short positions. The daily chart displays a 6-month bottom. While I am a long-term bear on Treasury prices (bull on yields), the COT profile and daily chart suggest a sharp rally could be in the works. I will monitor this market for a buying opportunity.

A rally by the nearby contract to 122^24 would retest the double top on the monthly graph.

Treasury Markets – T-Bonds

A rally on the monthly futures graph to 148^00 would be a retest of the overhead H&S pattern. The daily chart displays a possible inverted H&S bottom. This chart would suggest an advance to 152^00 – and that would go a long way to negate the H&S top on the weekly graph. The monthly T-Bond yield chart (next page) shows that the multi-decade channel remains intact.

The weekly yield chart displays a massive H&S bottom pattern. Resistance in the 3.25% zone has repelled the advances. A 30-year Bond daily print of 3.32% would signal the start of a strong trend toward higher yields (lower futures prices).

Treasury Markets – Bond Yield Charts

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Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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What is Market Breadth Telling Us

July 16, 2018/by Peter Brandt

NYA – NYSE Composite

NYA displays a possible 6+ month symmetrical triangle. In my opinion the single most important chart for the U.S. stock market is the NYA cumulative A/D line. This chart indicates that the advance in U.S. equities represents strong market breadth and health.

Russell 2000

Several chart observations are worthy of note.

The advance on May 16 completed a 16-week ascending triangle with targets of 1750 and 1809.
The decline from Jun 21 to Jun 28 appears to have been a shallow retest of the ascending triangle.
The advance on Jul 5 could have been a “sign-of-strength” (SOS) that the major trend is reasserting

Factor Membership

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Peter Brandt is a 40+ year veteran of trading. Through his Factor Service, members receive:

Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns: A free PDF copy of Peter’s classic out-of-print book

Weekend Update: 10-16 pages full of in-depth chart analysis and charting commentary

Alerts: Detailed information on specific charts as unique opportunities present themselves

Market Commentaries: Communications on specific topics regarding market speculation and trading distributed periodically

Webinars: Monthly member-only webinars where Peter speaks about current conditions and fields member questions

Knowledge Center: Fast and easy access to current and archived content from Peter’s extensive library of content

Automatic notifications: Email and social media notifications are sent out when new content is published

.

View your Factor Member options here. You could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.

I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.

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