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Do continuation head and shoulders patterns really exist?

A number of readers have questioned the legitimacy of the continuation pattern. They claim that such a pattern does not exist.

Well, it is time to set the record straight!

Schabacker, Edwards and Magee are the authoritative sources on classical charting principles. The three men never claimed to be the final word on Gann or Elliott or moving averages or candlesticks. But, they are the final word on classical chart patterns.

Here is what Edwards and Magee had to say about the continuation H&S pattern (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 5th Edition, pages 181-182):

“Head-and-Shoulders Consolidations.

“All our references to the Head-and-Shoulders formations up to this point…have considered that pattern as typifying reversal of trend, and in its normal and common manifestation that is most definitely the Head-and-Shoulders function. But occasionally prices will go through a series of fluctuations which construct a sort of inverted Head-and-Shoulders picture which in turn leads to continuation of the previous trend.”

“There is no danger of confusing such continuation or consolidation formations with regular Head-and-Shoulders Reversals because, as we have said, they are inverted or abnormal with respect to the direction of price prior to their appearance. In other words, one of these patterns which develops in a rising market will take the form of a Head-and-Shoulders Bottom. Those that appear in declines, assume the appearance of a Head-and-Shoulders Top.”

Now, some folks opposed to the concept of the continuation H&S have parsed Edwards and Magee’s description — pointing out that the exact wording used included “sort of” and “will take the form of.”

I think that such parsing  is equal to hair splitting. So did Richard W. Schabacker. In his manuscript, Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, written in 1937, Schabacker alluded to the fact that the continuation H&S serves a different purpose than the reversal H&S, but concluded with the following:

“This formation is not a true Head and Shoulders for a number of important reasons but we must admit that it is difficult to find a better name for it….we shall accept the suggested name and call it the Continuation Head and Shoulders.”

So, when I define a pattern as a continuation H&S formation, I am in some pretty good company. For those of you who still take exception to the labeling, take it up with Schabacker, Edwards and Magee.

By the way, the chart below displays one of the most classic continuation H&S patterns of all time.

I believe Schabacker, Edwards and Magee would have accepted this labeling, and that is good enough for me. Of course, I could start referring to the pattern as the “a reputed, appearing as, but conditionally qualified, sort of continuation H&S pretender.” Nah, I think I will just refer to it as a continuation H&S pattern, same as I have been doing all along.

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An excellent example of the “all-one-market” phenomena

It has come to be known as the “risk-on/risk-off” or “all-one-market” phenomena in global markets. It is a situation where seemingly unrelated markets have taken on an historically high correlation. Individual markets seem to be the proxy for all other markets.

I have witnessed periods in the past when unusually strong correlations existed for months and months. But, I have never experienced the level of correlation we have lived with as traders since 2008. There are a lot of theories out there to explain this phenomena. Most of them touch on the global flow of capital, speculative herd instincts, liquidity, the search for “safe havens,” and the like. I will leave the precise and correct explanation to those much smarter than myself.

Any way, I have come across near identical chart patterns in three seemingly unrelated markets (although I am sure I will hear a scenario from many of you as to why these markets are not unrelated).

The charts shown below are Crude Oil, S&Ps and the EURUSD. Note that the first two are daily graphs, while EURUSD is an intra-day chart. Seeing the same pattern in different time frames has become known as the “fractal” concept. But, nevertheless, the price behavior of the three markets has been nearly identical during their respective corrective rallies.

 

Will the outcomes be the same? Will one of the three be the leading indicator? It will be interesting to see. I can say this — the pattern is either very bearish or quite bullish. Talk about hedging my bet? What we see at the present time qualifies as a possible bearish rising wedge of a possible horn or sloping bottom.

My guess is that all three patterns will morph into something different. Big help am I!

Markets: $CL_F, $OIL, $SPY, $ES_F, $EURUSD, $G6E_F

A challenge to the non-day traders among you.

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When the flag ($SPY) stops flying

The flag interpretation in the U.S. stock indexes is beginning to unravel.

I have been loudly “waving the flag” for another leg down in the U.S. stock. Well, I am beginning to doubt this interpretation based on a well burried sentence in the Edwards and Magee book. I thank reader Andrew for our dialogue about this matter.

A discussion of flags in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Chapter 17 (Measuring Implicatons in Chart Patterns) points out that if the flag continues for more than three weeks, the flag interpretation is probably not correct.

We are now in the fifth week of the flag. The Dec. S&P futures punched through the bottom of the flag today and appears to have little follow through.  A close above Friday’s close would put the flag interpretation 70% in doubt, in my opinion. Of course, this flag may prove to be an outlier and still work. But, it needs to work today or tomorrow at the latest.

Does a failure of the flag mean the stock market has bottomed? NO!!!! What it means is that the flag will morph into a larger pattern. The dominant trend in stocks is down. Periods of confusion normally are resolved in the direction of the dominant trend.

Markets: $SPY $ES_F

Silver is a cross dresser!

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In Memory

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The Principle of Least Regret

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Trading as a strategic operation

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U.S. Dollar bottom almost identical to 2008

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