The Public Blog site

My Trading Day

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I get many questions on what a typical day looks like for me.  This is an important question because the PROCESS of trading is extremely important. Friday afternoon late • Print out a list of my positions and open orders Saturday • Scroll through weekly charts of the “long list” of markets I monitor on a weekly basis. This typically includes about 50 futures markets, 25 forex pairs and 25 equities. • Create a “short list” of markets of interest, including all the markets in which I am entering a new week with a position. The “short list” usually included about 20 to 30 markets. • Scroll through the daily charts of the “short list” to determine those markets that could generate a buy or sell signal the following week. From this review I create my “active list” which includes the markets in which I hold a position and markets in which I will develop a trading strategy. • The “active list” typically includes 10 or so markets. I monitor this list carefully. I may even monitor this list inter- day for an asymmetrical trading opportunity. • For open trades, I review my target and stops orders to determine if any modifications are needed • For possible new trades, I determine an entry strategy, risk management guidelines and trade sizing Read More

Factor Update, March 20, 2016

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 General Market Commentary

Not all market environments are equal. Similarly, the same market environment can treat different trading styles in very different ways – some favorably, others miserably. The current markets, in my opinion, are neutral/hostile to classical charting principles. Current markets are volatile; false and premature breakouts have increased in 2016 to date; and, there is a lack of substantial patterns under construction. I have experienced this type of trading environment before – many times. There are profits to be had in some markets, but there are also an oversupply of land mines. For me, this type of trading environment has not correlated well with a robust three-month forward ROR. Of course I will continue to take signals that are promising knowing that sooner or later markets favorable to classical charting will return. Warning: I generally ignore one-day price action, preferring area patterns. Yet, nearly every market discussed in this Update experienced a narrow real-range bar on Friday that occurred at or just below the close of Thursday’s wide range day. This development suggests the possibility of a shake out next week. According, I enter next week in a very defensive frame of mind.

Market Review

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Hodge-Podge

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The last Factor Update commented on a possible bottom in Soybeans based on a H&S bottom on the continuation graph (most active contract roll).

 A close above 900 would, in my opinion, complete this bottom. It is unfortunate that the charts of the individual contract months do now show the precision of the continuation graph. This chart illustrates the reasons I far prefer a flat or horizontal neckline. Even though the neckline as drawn may be violates, the left and right should highs remain as serious resistance points. Thus, even though the H&S pattern might be completed with a neckline breakout, the market remains in a trading range.
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A bear market bottom in Silver - Peter Brandt

Is the tarnish on Silver about to be removed?

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Five-year bear trend in Silver may be coming to an end

For the past five years Factor has remained negative on the Silver charts, calling for the bottom in Dec 2014. The weekly graph has now formed a 16-month falling wedge. This pattern can serve as a primary bottom based on classical charting principles.

April 2011, Factor correctly called the top in here (How do you spell bubble — SILVER) and here (8 years of Silver Supply changes hands at top).

 

A bear market bottom in Silver - Peter Brandt

The daily chart exhibits several features. First, note the 12-week rounding bottom at the low boundary of the weekly chart wedge. The chart is now forming a possible 6-week cup and handle pattern (in form only). Note that the handle portion has formed an independent rectangle. The completion of this cup and handle pattern would also clearly resolve the weekly chart falling wedge.  The completion of the wedge would establish an initial price target of 1840.

A bear market bottom in Silver - Peter Brandt

 

WARNING — Silver is notorious as a volatile market that whips traders around without warning. A $1 swing can occur at any moment. I far prefer to trade Gold.

 

$SI_F, $SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

Factor Report – March 13th

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Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:
  • Gold
  • Japanese Yen
  • USD/NOK
  • Copper
  • AUD/NZD
A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.

Factor Moves in Progress

 

Copper (daily chart)

After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer. 1     Read More

Patience … Discipline … Discipline … Discipline … Patience

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  I know my sweet spot. Every trader should strive to know his or her sweet spot. We should strive to only take a trade when the market set up is in our sweet spot. We should strive to avoid trades out of our sweet spot. If you, as a trader, do not know your trade set up with great intimacy, then how in the world will you know if you are exercising patience and discipline? Once you know exactly what your sweet spot is and is not, then the real challenges begin. The real challenges for me (and it could be different for you) are different nuances of patience and discipline.
  • Patience to wait for just the right set up
  • Discipline to sit on the sidelines and not getting pulled into a trade that does not fully satisfy my requirements
  • Discipline to pull the trigger when the right trade comes along
  • Discipline to remain detached from open positions and properly manage each trade according to trade management guidelines developed over decades of market speculation
  • Patience to allow a position with a substantial profit potential the room and time to bear full fruit
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Factor Trading – March 6th Report

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NOTE:  All future such Premium Reports will NOT be publicly available.  To receive or view any of these Premium Reports in the future, you will need to be signed up on our free email list.  Please register using the form at the bottom of this report.

 

Market Review

  Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:
  • Gold
  • Japanese Yen
  • USD/NOK
  • Copper
  • GBP/CAD
A Factor Move is developing in AUD/NZD. This issue of the Factor also comments on Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and U.S. stock indexes.

Factor Moves in Progress

Copper (daily chart) There are several observations worthy of note on the daily Copper chart. First, note the premature breakout on Friday, Feb 26. The market broke out of the H&S bottom, but the rally could not hold. Following a premature breakout traders should be on extra alert and jump on a subsequent closing price breakout. Second, the advance and close on Monday, Feb 29 and especially on Tuesday, Mar 1, confirmed the H&S bottom. Both days served as buying opportunities. Third, for all practical purposes the target was met by Friday’s advance. I typically am conservative on determining “measured moves.” Factor is flat, having taken a crazy ride on the long side this past week.   image 1

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Gold – The Ultimate Charting Market – Report

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Gold Report – The Ultimate Charting Market

A History of Gold Charts

Free 47-Page Gold Report

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AUD/CAD – Chart Developing

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  AUD/CAD -  This cross flashed a significant sell signal on Friday. I view short AUD/CAD as a potentially rewarding cross in the weeks and months ahead. This is a cross that can be traded in the spot forex market or using futures contract on a one-to-one basis, although such a trade would be over-weighted to CAD.
The longest-term charts show that AUD/CAD have remained in a broad trading range for many years.
 
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The weekly chart displays several patterns worthy of note. The decline in June 2013 completed a 24-month H&S top pattern. The decline from this H&S has queickly turned into a 41-month descending triangle pattern. This is this pattern that most has my attention. I believe that the completion of this descending triangle would result in a decline in AUD/CAD to the low end of the historical price range at .7600.
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Is the present decline in the S&Ps a déjà vu of 2011?

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Examining the chart structures of 2011/2012 with the present period

Classical charting principles at the core represent analog analyses -- that certain price patterns tend to repeat over time with slightly different variations.

An interesting analog situation has developed in the S&Ps. Some technical analysts have declared that the current market construction is analogous to 2011/2012 and will be similarly resolved by a continuation of the dominant bull trend. I completely disagree. Let’s examine the construction components of each period. The top chart is the S&Ps during the 2011/2112 period. The bottom chart is the current market.
  • Both periods had a textbook H&S top and, coincidentally, each top was completed in the month of August -- both marked as Stage 1
  • Both periods quickly met the target of their respective H&S top patterns only to develop a period of extreme volatility -- both marked as Stage 2
  • Both periods then rallied sharply back into the price zone of the initial H&S top pattern only to develop an other range of volatility -- both marked as Stage 3
2.23_ES_2011.2012 2.23_ES_2015.2016 Read More