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Factor Alert (Oct 18, 2016) — Australian Dollar

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The Aussie $ seems poised to gain on several other currency units based on the charts.   AUD/CHF -- the weekly chart displays a 22-month symmetrical triangle. A decisive close above the Apr 2016 high will be enough to warrant a long position. I am willing to risk about 60 BPs on the trade. Symmetrical triangles often lack reliability. Also, patterns longer than 12-months are more apt to experience morphing.   Read More

Factor Update – Oct 16th

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Japanese Yen Alert

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Factor Update – October 9, 2016 includes a Special Feature on Gold Production

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Member only Q&A with Peter 10/13

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Forex markets and precious metals

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Factor Interim Update, October 2, 2016

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A bearish technical case for Gold

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Remember three things as you read this:
  • An opinion is not a position and a position is not necessary an opinion
  • I deal in possibilities, not probabilities and certainly not certainties
  • A chart pattern does not become a pattern until it is completed -- and even then it may fail
Summary A bearish chart case can be made for Gold based on five factors. Read More

Factor Member Monthly Webinar – Sep 22nd

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Recorded live September 22, 2016 Discussion Points
  • Edge - The nature of a trading scheme that provides it with the ability to carve out beta against its appropriate benchmark universe
    • Classical chart patterns - in and of themselves - provide no meaningful trading edge - in fact, no trade identification mechanism provides a meaningful edge
    • Win rate - in and of itself - provides no meaningful trading edge
  • Factor’s Edge - Factor’s edge is attributable to four primary things
  1. An emotional separation from the need to be right
  2. Aggressive risk and trade management protocols resulting in many non-injurious losses - protecting trading capital in the SINGLE DOMINATE PRIORITY
  3. Identifying and committing to very selective highly asymmetrical reward-to-risk trades
  4. Allowing the odds to provide a few trades that work immediately and provide profits of 350 to 450 plus basis points each
  • Soybean Oil - Walking through the trade
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Factor Update – September 25, 2016

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