Brexit Exit Polling by Hedge Funds
Brexit Polling
The British government allows large hedge funds to conduct their own exit polling. They are not allowed to release their findings until 22:00 British Summer Time (BST) — there is no prohibition against their trading based on their own Brexit exit polling.
Properly sampled Brexit exit polling in UK voting is extremely accurate (usually within a +/- 1% error). Hedge funds will have a good indication on the Brexit vote by midday BST and will almost certainly have solid data by 18:00 BST. There is an embargo on publishing results until 22:00 BST. Thus, hedge funds will have a lead of many hours over the average market speculator.
The current betting odds is are 75% “remain.”
[Note: My view is that a trader should not attempt to maximize profits on any given government report, event, day, week, month or even year — but to construct risk management practices geared to the longevity of market speculation over decades. Accordingly, I have covered all financially related positions.]
plb
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