I hate to be the bearer of bad news to some of you, but taking losses is the primary job description of a market speculator. If Losing Trades offend you or upset your emotional chemistry, if you consider “being wrong” to be a character fault or a “problem” with your trading approach, if you even think that the marketplace cares what you think or what you do, then market speculation is probably not for you. Trading is mostly an exercise of throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks – and most lumps of mud fall quickly to the floor. I have known many extremely profitable career traders over the years and very few of them have a win rate in excess of 50%. Almost to a person, these traders view taking losses (many losses) as the process of finding winners.
The dominant construction on the Cotton Chart continues to be the completed 24-month double bottom on the weekly Cotton Chart. The targets of this bottom are 79.10 (the measured move) and 95.10 (May 2014 high). The Dec contract was launched by a 5- week pennant. Factor is long, having taken partial profits.
Crude Oil is descending out of a triangle pattern. The daily graphs show clear signs of topping in the energy markets. The daily graph of Sep RB Gas has completed an 11-week H&S top pattern with a target of 1.3237.
Silver – Despite the fact I have preferred the long side of Silver over the long side of Gold, I have grossly underestimated the power of this Silver trend….Gold – The broadening pattern is typically reversal in nature. Very rarely will a continuation broadening pattern occur….
CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) Report Forecast a Gold Decline?
In recent past, I have cited the CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) report's record open interest by large specs and record short open interest by commercials as a possible negative for Gold prices. Never one to trust myself, I decided to dig deeper to find out if my claim held water.
In fact, there is no recent evidence that such extremes in commercial shorts and large spec longs are negative factors on subsequent price action.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/CFTC-COT-Commitment-of-Traders-impact-on-Gold-Peter-Brandt.jpg7611333Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-06-30 09:25:222016-06-30 09:50:34Does the current CFTC COT Report forecast a decline in Gold prices?
Winning Trades and Losing Trades
/by Peter BrandtI hate to be the bearer of bad news to some of you, but taking losses is the primary job description of a market speculator. If Losing Trades offend you or upset your emotional chemistry, if you consider “being wrong” to be a character fault or a “problem” with your trading approach, if you even think that the marketplace cares what you think or what you do, then market speculation is probably not for you. Trading is mostly an exercise of throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks – and most lumps of mud fall quickly to the floor. I have known many extremely profitable career traders over the years and very few of them have a win rate in excess of 50%. Almost to a person, these traders view taking losses (many losses) as the process of finding winners.
Cotton Chart
/by Peter BrandtThe dominant construction on the Cotton Chart continues to be the completed 24-month double bottom on the weekly Cotton Chart. The targets of this bottom are 79.10 (the measured move) and 95.10 (May 2014 high). The Dec contract was launched by a 5- week pennant. Factor is long, having taken partial profits.
Bottom-line Winners – Junk-Pile Trades
/by Peter BrandtBottom-line winners and junk-pile trades, part 1: How they all contribute to Factor’s trading operations and performance.
Part 2 of this series will focus on Bottom Liners.
Part 3 of this series will focus on the Junk Pile of lesser profits and losers
Crude Oil Descending
/by Peter BrandtCrude Oil is descending out of a triangle pattern. The daily graphs show clear signs of topping in the energy markets. The daily graph of Sep RB Gas has completed an 11-week H&S top pattern with a target of 1.3237.
Silver and Gold Confirm Bull Market
/by Peter BrandtSilver – Despite the fact I have preferred the long side of Silver over the long side of Gold, I have grossly underestimated the power of this Silver trend….Gold – The broadening pattern is typically reversal in nature. Very rarely will a continuation broadening pattern occur….
Does the current CFTC COT Report forecast a decline in Gold prices?
/by Peter BrandtCFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) Report Forecast a Gold Decline?
In recent past, I have cited the CFTC COT (Commitment of Traders) report's record open interest by large specs and record short open interest by commercials as a possible negative for Gold prices. Never one to trust myself, I decided to dig deeper to find out if my claim held water.