https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/full-time.jpg8881333Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-12-20 08:56:482016-12-20 09:01:11So you want to become a full-time trader
This blog post is relation to the H&S Soybean Oil pattern identified within the post from September 12th https://www.peterlbrandt.com/soybean-oil-next/
The weekly Soybean Oil continuation graph has completed one of the most perfect textbook H&S bottom patterns I have seen in 41 years following futures markets.
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As a trader, I have gone months and even years paying little attention to the composition of open interest as reported each week by the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data (COT). I have covered the topic of CFTC COT Data recently, only because a number of markets have experienced all-time record levels of spec long and commercial short positions.
In a recent Factor update, I even raised the question of whether the old book on how to interpret COT data might be thrown away – that we might have entered a new and different era. Evidence now indicates that the old book and understanding of CFTC COT data still applies – that record levels of spec longs and commercial shorts is a reason for concern.
The charts below show some recent and current markets exhibiting CFTC COT extremes. In the cases of Soybean Oil, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Cotton, Copper and Crude Oil, record COT spec long positions led to significant market sell offs. It should be noted that Soybean Oil, Sugar, Cotton, Coffee and Copper are still at COT extremes, indicating that additional selling pressure is likely.
Please do not misunderstand me to be saying that record spec long positions MUST always lead to price declines. This is NOT the case. There have been times in the past when commercials have been forced to capitulate. For example, the monthly Copper chart (bottom chart featured) shows that a COT profile similar to the current profile resulted in an historic advance starting in Sep 2003.
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https://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/CFTC-COT-Data.jpg7331333Peter Brandthttps://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/TheFactorReport-small-logo.jpgPeter Brandt2016-11-21 09:49:332016-11-21 09:49:33CFTC COT Data – A discussion
A Market Wizards Dialogue - Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 1
Below is the first of a three part interview with Jack Schwager Market Wizards author and Peter Brandt CEO and founder of Factor Trading. We sincerely hope you enjoy and receive great value from all of our free content.
Read More
The dominant chart construction in this stock is the 16-month H&S bottom on the weekly chart. A decisive move and close above 14.70 will be my signal to buy. Factor is flat.
So you want to become a full-time trader
/by Peter BrandtA frequent question from aspiring traders goes something like this: “How do I know the right time to quit my job in order to trade full time?”…
Stock Market Index – Nasdaq
/by Peter BrandtYou can’t keep a good dog down. There are some wonderful traders I follow that have been calling for imminent collapse of the U.S. stock market.
Perfect Soybean Oil
/by Peter BrandtSoybean Oil futures
This blog post is relation to the H&S Soybean Oil pattern identified within the post from September 12th https://www.peterlbrandt.com/soybean-oil-next/ The weekly Soybean Oil continuation graph has completed one of the most perfect textbook H&S bottom patterns I have seen in 41 years following futures markets. Read MoreCFTC COT Data – A discussion
/by Peter BrandtCFTC COT Data – A discussion
As a trader, I have gone months and even years paying little attention to the composition of open interest as reported each week by the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data (COT). I have covered the topic of CFTC COT Data recently, only because a number of markets have experienced all-time record levels of spec long and commercial short positions. In a recent Factor update, I even raised the question of whether the old book on how to interpret COT data might be thrown away – that we might have entered a new and different era. Evidence now indicates that the old book and understanding of CFTC COT data still applies – that record levels of spec longs and commercial shorts is a reason for concern. The charts below show some recent and current markets exhibiting CFTC COT extremes. In the cases of Soybean Oil, Sugar, Gold, Silver, Cotton, Copper and Crude Oil, record COT spec long positions led to significant market sell offs. It should be noted that Soybean Oil, Sugar, Cotton, Coffee and Copper are still at COT extremes, indicating that additional selling pressure is likely. Please do not misunderstand me to be saying that record spec long positions MUST always lead to price declines. This is NOT the case. There have been times in the past when commercials have been forced to capitulate. For example, the monthly Copper chart (bottom chart featured) shows that a COT profile similar to the current profile resulted in an historic advance starting in Sep 2003. Read MoreA Market Wizards Dialogue
/by Peter BrandtA Market Wizards Dialogue - Jack Schwager - Peter Brandt Interview - Part 1
Below is the first of a three part interview with Jack Schwager Market Wizards author and Peter Brandt CEO and founder of Factor Trading. We sincerely hope you enjoy and receive great value from all of our free content. Read MoreFreeport McMoran (FCX) (Trade Idea)
/by Peter BrandtThe dominant chart construction in this stock is the 16-month H&S bottom on the weekly chart. A decisive move and close above 14.70 will be my signal to buy. Factor is flat.