Entries by Peter Brandt

The Chart of the Month — MSCI World Index building a top??

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MSCI World Index forming a massive 2-year H&S top

The MSCI Index appears to be rolling over in a right shoulder of a significant top pattern. One must be blind not to notice the similarities between this potential top and the chart top completed in 2008. Also, notice how the right shoulder held at the 6+ year trendline. The completion of the H&S top would also violate the trendline. A completion of this top could lead to a decline toward 1400.

MSCI

 

But I am NOT a doomsayer. In U.S. stocks I am NOT a bear and I am NOT a bull. In fact, I believe the S&Ps will remain in a range of 10% above the recent high to 10% below the recent low for the next five to eight years.

12.14_SPX Read More

A chart analysis of the Swiss Franc

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Charts indicate that the USD/CHF could trade at 1.1200 and perhaps as high as 1.2350.

Swiss National Bank is intent upon driving the Franc lower (i.e., USD/CHF higher)

 

Note: This report represents the type of analysis routinely provided to members of the Factor Service. Members of the Factor Service have been advised for three weeks to be long USD/CHF. For information on the Factor Service, click "Subscription" on the upper menu bar. The membership rate for new members to the Factor Service will be increased by $100 per year beginning January 1.

When analyzing the charts of a commodity, stock or foreign exchange pair, it is always best to start with a long-term view and work towards the shorter-term.

The 100-year chart of USD/CHF shows that the USD is extremely cheap in historical relationship with the CHF, as shown below. Market observers who believe the USD/CHF cross is overheated do not have a clue. The clueless bunch were screaming "overbought" on USD/JPY back in Jan 2013 when the cross was under 90 to 1, on its way to 123 to 1.

USD.CHF 100 years Read More

Live Cattle charts confirm a major top

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A major top has been confirmed on the Live Cattle price graphs, projecting significantly lower prices.

The weekly continuation graph completed a 14-month H&S top on Aug 21. The general target of this top is sub-120.
9.16_LE057_W

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The bearish case in Silver is back on the table

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Seven month symmetrical triangle has been confirmed

Decline on August 25 triggerd an 8-week H&S failure

In recent weeks I have presented to members of the Factor Service the possibility that  why The Silver chart is a textbook example of the veracity of classical charting principles. Some of the features on the weekly graph include:

  • The blow-off top in April 2011 accompanied by record blow-of volume
  • The rising wedge retest of the top completed in September 2011
  • The continuation H&S pattern completed in April 2013
  • The descending triangle completed in September 2014
  • The symmetrical triangle completed in June 2015

8.26_SI_W Read More