Entries by Peter Brandt

Trading Drawdowns

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The dream of novice market speculators is that they will continually bask in the warmth of profitable times. This myth is falsely promised by the promoters of trading systems and trading training programs. In fact, just the opposite is true. Most long-term profitable traders spend the vast majority of their trading careers either in a trading drawdown or recovering from a drawdown. Any slick promoter who tells you different is not dealing from a full deck.

There is a statistical concept known as the “underwater curve.” The underwater curve plots the time periods when new all-time high NAV levels are being registered (represented by “0” on an underwater curve) and the time periods in which drawdowns are either underway or in recovery back toward new all-time NAV levels.

U.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic

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U.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic

U.S. stocks remain in strong underlying bull trends. The dominant pattern in the NASDAQ is a completed 18-month H&S failure pattern with a target of 5413.

 

U.S. Stocks Ignoring Logic - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt NASDAQ

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Next Possible Silver Targets

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The advance in Silver is consolidating in the form of a rectangle. This consolidation could propel the market to its next Silver Target at 22.47, or lead to a retest of support at 18.00.

Emerging Markets Index

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The dominant chart construction in EM futures (Emerging Markets) remains the completed 10- month H&S bottom pattern on the weekly chart wherein the final stage of the right shoulder was an independent 5-week H&S on the daily graph (red box). The initial profit target is 951 with a further potential of 1100 (Sep 2014 high). I continue to note the substantial overhead resistance on the weekly graph above 850.