Entries by Peter Brandt

Explaining the Dominant Fundamental Factor

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All day long we witness market “experts,” brokerage firm research analysts, the talking heads on CBNC and Bloomberg and participants in social media (Twitter, private chat rooms, et al) present this fundamental data or that fundamental data as the factors they feel should be driving market prices. In 95% of the cases, the fundamentals presented by these voices are unimportant — the facts may be correct, but the fundamentals behind the facts presented are not “market drivers.”

Traders and analysts develop the opinion that the things they focus on are really important drivers of price.

Cost of Silver production
Fed policy
Employment data
Consumer optimism
Factory production
Rail traffic
Earnings
Corporate, private and government debt trends

Explaining the Dominant Fundamental Factor

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Dominant Fundamental Factor

I have a theory about the U.S. stock market (and all other markets). I have no idea if I am right or wrong, but I believe with all my heart I am right.

The theory is that there is only one major fundamental or global macro factor (at the outside, maybe two) that drives a major trend in the U.S. stock market. I call this theory the "Dominant Fundamental Factor."

All the other apparently important fundamental factors just create confusion and market noise.

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Explaining the Dominant Fundamental Factor

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Dominant Fundamental Factor

I have a theory about the U.S. stock market (and all other markets). I have no idea if I am right or wrong, but I believe with all my heart I am right.

The theory is that there is only one major fundamental or global macro factor (at the outside, maybe two) that drives a major trend in the U.S. stock market. I call this theory the "Dominant Fundamental Factor."

All the other apparently important fundamental factors just create confusion and market noise.

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Factor Alert – Ignorance is not bliss

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Ignorance is not bliss -- especially when trading speculative markets

 

Many questions from members to the Factor Service have been received in recent days. I appreciate your questions and feedback and only wish I could answer each and every question posed. Please know that Factor staff reviews every single email received.
Sometimes I am right on markets and trading ideas, sometimes I am wrong -- welcome to trading. But I promise you I will always express my opinions as directly and truthfully as I know how.

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Factor Alert – NZD/JPY

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This is a forex cross I have been watching for the past four months.
The cross has remained in a broad trading range of 45.00 (means 45 Yen per NZD) to 96.00, as shown on the monthly graph.

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Losing to Win

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I sometimes sense from email correspondence I receive from the Factor community that there is an obsession in being “Right” when trading, or put another way, concern that their analysis might be “wrong.”

Running the risk of offending, this worry about being right or wrong on a trade or an analysis puts up a major red flag in my mind.