Entries by Peter Brandt

The Next Big Crude Oil Move

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 The Next Big Crude Oil Move
 The weekly continuation chart of WTI Crude Oil displays an 18-month H&S top pattern. This is a chance that the Sep 28 high will represent the high of the right shoulder.

 

Crude Oil - Factor Trading - Peter Brandt

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The 3 Most Important Ways to Track Trading Performance

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Trading Performance

Human beings exist day-to-day in a world preoccupied by statistical measures, ranging from numerous personal health metrics (blood pressure, PSA counts, temperature, oxygen levels, heart rate, etc.) to standard weights & measures (gallons, pounds, meters, temperature, etc.) to determinants of economic well-being (GDP, unemployment rates, inflation rates, interest rates, balance-of-payments, etc.) to statistical definitions of every area of our lives. Modern society could not exist without measuring nearly every conceivable thing.

Yet, many traders make no attempt to convert their Trading Performance into meaningful metrics. This is unfortunate because meaningful metrics are not simply interesting statistics – rather they can serve important functions:

  • Dictate and guide the development of trading strategy
  • Monitor trading outcomes against intended benchmarks
  • Diagnose potential problems

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Three Most Important Ways to Measure Performance: Profit Factor, Gain-to-Pain Ratio, and Closed Trade NAV Curve

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Human beings exist day-to-day in a world preoccupied by statistical measures, ranging from numerous personal health metrics, to standard weights & measures, to determinants of economic well-being, to statistical definitions of every area of our lives. Modern society could not exist without measuring nearly every conceivable thing. Yet, many traders make no attempt to convert their trading performance into meaningful metrics. This is unfortunate because meaningful metrics are not simply interesting statistics — rather they can serve important functions.

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Factor LLC and Tech Chart Member September 2017 Webinar

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Factor LLC and Tech Chart Member September 2017 Webinar

Member Webinar and Q&A with Peter L. Brandt and Aksel Kibar - Recorded live September 21, 2017

Opening discussion/presentation by Peter and Aksel 

  • Favorite classical chart patterns
  • Establishing timing of entry and targets
  • Current markets

Live questions from Members  

  1. Peter: Do you track prices of rice separately or is it included in the grains chart that you already are tracking? 46:02
  2. Aksel: How important is the volume when price break out from the chart pattern? Is it more reliable with higher volume in your opinion? 47:01
  3. Either: CS - (as an example) You pull up a chart on interactive brokers, big charts, metastock, etc., and you get different break out resistance lines — what is the “official" chart? 48:23
  4. Peter: Since I traded more in India, can you please tell what is the strongest sector that can be played for nifty move up to 11250? 50:54
  5. Aksel: What risk management / trade management rules of thumbs do you apply when trading? 51:41
  6. Both: From observing your trades/recommendations you seem to have a different time frame for your ideal trade setups (10-26 weeks vs 4-24 months) — would be curious to understand if this is a function of the different markets you trade or if you just have different experiences with the reliability of time frames or something else? 52:51
  7. Both: Neither of you use volume in your analysis, to confirm breakouts , etc., can you talk a little bit about why you don't use it, especially for stocks Aksel as volume is more readily available there compared to forex. 54:54
  8. Peter: Can the right shoulder in gold chart morph into an abbreviated one and thus making it breakout powerfully?  What is the reason for you to have the H&S to be symmetrical in case of gold? 58:13
  9. Aksel: I have a general question concerning the neckline of HS-Formation. I noticed the neckline/boundary can be horizontal, and diagonal as well. Is that of any significance? 1:00:12
  10. Either: With regard to futures the successful patterns are 12-16 weeks long. In light of having to wait for the “right" patterns as a trader are you not significantly limiting yourself in building significant equity due to the few opportunities that emerges. 1:00:52
  11. Either: What do you see as the pros and cons of using CFDs for trading stocks? And is it an instrument your recommend using? 1:02:42
  12. Either: If a flag/pennant correction after a previous move, where you ideally enter and set the stop loss? 1:04:10
  13. Peter: You mentioned the tactical challenges in trading 1-2 year patterns — would you mind explain how you address these challenges tactically? 1:06:10
  14. Aksel: Do you agree with Peter that profits should be taken when target is met? 1:08:03
  15. Either: Do either of you have a real preference for bars over candles and why? 1:09:29
  16. Peter: Do you also watch bar-by-bar in order to identify patterns more accurately. Kind of "tape reading"? I understand you trade the break out, but are you more alert when e.g. bars are more narrow ranged at the moment you think breakout comes? 1:10:25
  17. Either: Where do you place initial and subsequent stops on BO? What do you consider too late a BO entry? 1:11:18
  18. Either: There are so many great trade set up ideas provided for in your chart analysis.  Practically when managing capital, you are constrained by the number of trades that you can take. How do you manage the process of selecting the "best trades" and what criteria do you use to define those? 1:14:06

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