Factor Update, November 30 2024
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Bottom confirmed in Fetch.AI
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Factor Member Webinar November 2024
Recorded November 21, 2024
During the live webinar, we encountered technical issues and had to pause after addressing the first few questions. Peter then recorded answers to all the submitted questions, and we edited them into a comprehensive recording. We hope you enjoy it!
Overview
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- Trading for a living vs. trading for a quick fortune
- Words from Enrico, a Factor Member
- Q&A 19:04
- Is Djia set to reach USD 45009 as per the September report. 19:04
- How should I interpret or approach the Factor Report? 21:09
- What is a Setup Day? 22:49
- I have come across the term "Last Day Rule." I've read various definitions online, but I need clarification on whether I fully understand them. Please clarify. 25:14
- I read that Peter uses Swings and/or P&F charts count to develop Targets. How can I learn this method? 25:22
- Recently, you mentioned that if you started trading now, you would increase your risk size to 200–300 bps and "be more selective in the trades you take." How would your trade selections differ from those you currently make? What specific criteria would guide these choices? You also mentioned narrowing trade criteria to focus on 20–30 trades per year, which I find particularly intriguing. Could you elaborate on how you'd structure this more selective approach? Additionally, I'm curious about your emphasis on trade setup criteria as the top priority, especially since it seems to challenge the conventional wisdom (including your own advice) that trade selection is the least critical aspect of trading. Why prioritize this over elements like exit strategies? 27:50
- Peter, you emphasize trading well-defined chart formations with clearly established breakout levels. You've mentioned taking a maximum of two trades per market if the first one fails. My question is: What criteria do you use for the second trade, considering that the initial failed breakout attempt polluted the clarity of the chart? 35:04
- How does Peter roll into the next contract? What type of orders does he use (Market/LMT/Stop); does he get out of the whole position all at once with one order or use several orders spread over time? Is it different for thin markets? Are Buy and Sell orders executed at the same time? Are winning and losing positions handled the same as losing positions? Does he use this as an opportunity to get stopped back into positions that are profitable or not profitable? 36:55
- What is your current protocol regarding the ADX indicator? How are you using it now? 38:50
- Briefly explain your rules and criteria for entering a 100%, 50%, or less position size. At which point do you divide any trade into tranches (1, 2, or more)? 39:45
- When you exit a tranche (reduced to 50% of the original size), do you have rules for adding it back in the future (back to 100% of the original size)? 41:45
- How does Peter trade wide opening gaps when long (e.g. opening gaps well below his protective stop and, as is often the case with such gaps, at or near a lower support zone)? Does he have some preferred methods, and if they require day-trading to minimize the slippage from the original stop, how much screen time do they entail? Those opening gaps are incredibly time-consuming. 43:04
- When you spot a potential trade because you observe that a breakout is likely, but there isn't an optimal zone to place the stop loss, how do you manage it? For example, you're monitoring an asset because there's still room for a breakout, but then the breakout occurs with a large candle. In this case, knowing your entry point but lacking an optimal stop loss level, how do you approach the trade to place orders and manage risk effectively? 44:29
- I know you cap position exposure at 6-8 units max. Still, do you have more stringent rules for closely correlated markets like the petroleum/soybean complex, precious metals, and equities? Do you enter multiple correlated positions in one day, or do you wait for follow-through? I saw that a month or so ago, you went long on both gold and silver. I am curious how close those positions were put on and what precautions you took to make sure you were not left overexposed. 46:12
- How does Peter manage trades with home run potential (e.g., clear patterns with distant targets) that are well past the entry point but are only, say, 1/3 of their way to target? Peter has discussed his toolkit (multiple tranches, raising stop to previous support levels, moving averages), but it would be helpful if he could give some examples of how he managed to stay in the trade during corrections. The 18-dMA usually trails pretty close to price and strong rallies often pull back to slower moving averages (e.g. 50d-SMA for equities) before resuming their rallies. 48:24
- When Peter wrote in his 10-22-24 post on gold: "exit would be based on eight day crossover of the 18 day moving average with subsequent downside follow through", did he mean 8-day moving average crossover of the 18-day moving average? 50:20
- Volatility around key events - Events such as FMOC news conferences are often accompanied by wild price swings. If the price was near a key level and stop, the stop will often be hit during those swings even if it eventually moves favorably. Does Peter sometimes reduce his position or widen the stop until the swings subside? 51:51
- When you enter a trade that moves quickly in your favor, how do you manage the stop loss? Do you move it soon to breakeven, and if the price pulls back, would you consider re-entering on the retest, or how do you approach this? 53:19
- Triangles recap: I am still confused by how Peter counts triangles despite having reviewed several of his videos (including Best Dressed List) and Schabacker's book. Could Peter illustrate how he counts the number of contact points prior to an upside or downside breakout for various types of triangles (symmetrical, right angle, wedges, pennants), and where he places the first contact point? Idealized drawings on a sheet of paper would work just as well as actual historical examples. 54:58
- Regarding the "Completed Chart Patterns" Tweets, how can I interpret them? Specifically, what should the stop-loss (SL), entry points, and profit targets be? How do we pyramid our positions and adjust the stop-loss accordingly? 56:45
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November 25, 2024: Portfolio Update, New Trades, Trump Picks
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Factor Update, November 23, 2024
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WEBINAR: Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 11 am Mountain – Member Questions
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Factor Update, November 16, 2024
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Chart Wizards Report #59 November 15, 2024
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Chart Wizards Report #59 November 15, 2024
Greetings All,
I mistakenly posted my latest market report, which was intended exclusively for paid subscribers, on the public blog. Consider this a gift. If you find the report valuable, I invite you to support my work by subscribing to Chart Wizards’ Actual Alpha reports here:
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/chart-wizards/#section-subscribe
Chart Wizards Report #59
Report #59 reviews my YTD performance. Every trade discussed here has been shared with you.
Crypto Front & Center
- Bitcoin: Broke above $90,000, just shy of $100K. My next target is…
- Solana: Now trading above $200, up from $20 in 2023 = 10x. Continues to outperform ETH
Tactical Moves
- Locked in profits on [BTC, SOL], $GOOGL, $TSLA, $VRT, $PLTR, $SOFI
- Initiated a bold short position in Kellogg
Key Macro Themes
- Fed rate cuts (50bps Sept, 25bps Nov + 25bps coming in Dec)
- Pro-crypto/less regulation policy to boost BTC
This report dives deeper into emerging setups across crypto, equities and commodities, from the latest moves in gold, coffee, and crude oil to high-conviction plays in crypto and tech stocks.
Markets move fast. We’ve got you covered.
Safe trading,
ChartWizards59_November2024_byJKAmendment to Factor Update of November 9, 2024
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Peter Brandt’s Charting Tool
Peter’s Crypto Coverage
