September 2019 – Peter Brandt

Down in Latin America

September 30, 2019/by Peter Brandt

(This is an excerpt from the past weekend premium member report published last Friday morning the 27th)

Mexican Peso futures

Peso futures have been in a bear trend during my entire trading career. The decline on the long-term charts has taken the form of repeated symmetrical triangles. The weekly futures chart is coiling. There are two caveats to a short side trade: Symmetrical triangles that continue past the 70% market toward the apex should not be trusted and this is an extremely negative carry trade with each successive futures contract priced at a lower price. The G6M-066 chart shows that traders constantly long the nearby Peso contracts and rolling at expiration have a positive return since early 2017. I will monitor this market but prefer the Brazilian Real.

Brazilian Real futures

I have a greater interest in the Real than in the Peso. The weekly chart displays a massive descending triangle on the futures chart, traded in terms of the USD value of the Real (and a Cup and Handle on the spot graph, traded in terms of the number of Real per one USD). Based on CME settlement data as of Sep 26, the theoretical negative carry is approximately -300 BPs annualized.

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Factor Update, September 28, 2019

September 28, 2019/by Peter Brandt

This content is for members only

Factor Update, September 21, 2019, Part 3 of 3

September 21, 2019/by Peter Brandt

This content is for members only

Factor Update, September 21, 2019 _ Markets Under Review for Trades

September 20, 2019/by Peter Brandt

This content is for members only

Factor Update, September 21, 2019 _ Current Positions

September 20, 2019/by Peter Brandt

This content is for members only

Factor Update, September 14, 2019

September 14, 2019/by Peter Brandt

This content is for members only

Equities Show Promise

September 10, 2019/by Peter Brandt

(This is an excerpt from the past weekend premium member report published last Friday morning the 6th)

Global Equity Markets

The S&P cumulative A/D line has posted a new high. The major indexes (DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) should be next to post ATHs.

S&P 500 (CME)

I bought the completion of a rectangle on Thursday – and did so with hesitation knowing how frustrated I have been buying strength (over and over and over again) during 2019. The possible inverted H&S pattern has an up-slanted neckline.

China A50 (SGX)

The monthly chart exhibits a possible 4-year ascending triangle. The daily chart is attempting to complete a continuation symmetrical triangle. Factor is long – note the small 2-week pennant on the daily graph (boxed). I have an interest in pyramiding this trade. A close above 13995 is needed to confirm the daily chart triangle.

DAX (Eurex)

The advance on Aug 30 completed a small, but well-defined, inverted H&S bottom. Factor is long. The Sep 3 low is my pivot for protection. I will look to jam stops if the market approaches the 12462 target.

DJIA (CBOT)

I view the weekly chart as a 17-month inverted H&S with a premature breakout in Jul.

TSM (NYSE)

Two weekly charts are shown to display the massive 17-month inverted continuation H&S pattern. The total- return chart is on the right. The prices on this chart include previous dividend payments. The chart on the left is ex-dividend (prices have been reduced by previous dividends). Factor is flat. I will buy a breakout.