Factor Update – August 14, 2016
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Precious metals, Wheat, GBP, Cotton and Sugar
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Emerging Markets Index
Emerging Markets Index
The dominant chart construction in EM futures (Emerging Markets) remains the completed 10- month H&S bottom pattern on the weekly chart wherein the final stage of the right shoulder was an independent 5-week H&S on the daily graph (red box). The initial profit target is 951 with a further potential of 1100 (Sep 2014 high). I continue to note the substantial overhead resistance on the weekly graph above 850.
The chart of EEM-etf is also shown.
Factor Membership is available and you could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
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Factor Update – August 7, 2016
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BNCL and general stock market strength
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Winning Trades and Losing Trades
Winning Trades are the by-product of Losing Trades
Too many traders have an obsession with Winning Trades. I hate to be the bearer of bad news to some of you, but taking losses is the primary job description of a market speculator. If Losing Trades offend you or upset your emotional chemistry, if you consider “being wrong” to be a character fault or a “problem” with your trading approach, if you even think that the marketplace cares what you think or what you do, then market speculation is probably not for you. Trading is mostly an exercise of throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks – and most lumps of mud fall quickly to the floor. I have known many extremely profitable career traders over the years and very few of them have a win rate in excess of 50%. Almost to a person, these traders view taking losses (many losses) as the process of finding winners.
I am not offended by being wrong on a market call – it is absolutely not a big deal to me. It is always an amusement to me when tweeters go out of their way to remind me of bad market calls. To be a successful profit taker, a trader must first become good at taking losses. Sorry – both profits and losses are part of trading. I know of no other service similar to the Factor that provides a frank discussion of losing trades, losing days, losing weeks, losing months and even losing years (I have experienced several net losing years along the way). I am in no way embarrassed to be wrong on my market analysis or on trades.
If Losing Trades and being wrong bothers you then trading is not for you. If you become obsessed with Winning Trades and making money back in the same stock, forex pair or futures contract in which you lost capital, then you need to seriously examine if you should be involved in market speculation.
Factor Membership is available and you could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
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Cotton Chart
Cotton Chart
The dominant construction on the Cotton Chart continues to be the completed 24-month double bottom on the weekly Cotton Chart. The targets of this bottom are 79.10 (the measured move) and 95.10 (May 2014 high). The Dec contract was launched by a 5- week pennant. Factor is long, having taken partial profits.
Cotton Chart – The market appears to be forming a small 2-week pennant – I am willing to increase my leverage based on this pattern. However, a longer period of congestion or even a sizable correction would be very normal given the magnitude of the Jul 11-13 advance. A decline back toward 71.00 to fill the Jul 13 gap cannot be ruled out. There is no reason at this time to believe the period since the Jul 13 high will become part of a topping pattern.
Factor Membership is available and you could consider your membership in the Factor Service as just one more trade. If the Factor Service is not of value to you, well, it is just one more trade that did not work. Through the Factor Service I endeavor to alert novice and aspiring traders to the many pitfalls you will face – and to offer advice on overcoming those pitfalls. My goal is to shoot straight on what trading is all about. For more information watch my 30 minute webinar where we cover the Factor service in depth.
I hope you will consider joining the Factor community.
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Peter Brandt’s Charting Tool
Peter’s Crypto Coverage
