Hodge-Podge

March 17, 2016/by Peter Brandt

The last Factor Update commented on a possible bottom in Soybeans based on a H&S bottom on the continuation graph (most active contract roll).

A close above 900 would, in my opinion, complete this bottom. It is unfortunate that the charts of the individual contract months do now show the precision of the continuation graph. This chart illustrates the reasons I far prefer a flat or horizontal neckline. Even though the neckline as drawn may be violates, the left and right should highs remain as serious resistance points. Thus, even though the H&S pattern might be completed with a neckline breakout, the market remains in a trading range.

A bear market bottom in Silver - Peter Brandt

Is the tarnish on Silver about to be removed?

March 17, 2016/by Peter Brandt

Five-year bear trend in Silver may be coming to an end

For the past five years Factor has remained negative on the Silver charts, calling for the bottom in Dec 2014. The weekly graph has now formed a 16-month falling wedge. This pattern can serve as a primary bottom based on classical charting principles.

April 2011, Factor correctly called the top in here (How do you spell bubble — SILVER) and here (8 years of Silver Supply changes hands at top).

The daily chart exhibits several features. First, note the 12-week rounding bottom at the low boundary of the weekly chart wedge. The chart is now forming a possible 6-week cup and handle pattern (in form only). Note that the handle portion has formed an independent rectangle. The completion of this cup and handle pattern would also clearly resolve the weekly chart falling wedge. The completion of the wedge would establish an initial price target of 1840.

WARNING — Silver is notorious as a volatile market that whips traders around without warning. A $1 swing can occur at any moment. I far prefer to trade Gold.

$SI_F, $SLV

Factor Report – March 13th

March 14, 2016/by Peter Brandt

Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:

Gold
Japanese Yen
USD/NOK
Copper
AUD/NZD

A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.

Factor Moves in Progress

Copper (daily chart)

After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer.

Factor Report – March 13th

March 13, 2016/by Peter Brandt

Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:

Gold
Japanese Yen
USD/NOK
Copper
AUD/NZD

A Factor Move was terminated in AUD/NZD. A Factor Move is developing in USD/SEK and New Zealand Dollars. This issue of the Factor also comments on the Soybean complex, Euro, Heating Oil, Canadian Dollars and global stock markets.

Factor Moves in Progress

Copper (daily chart)

After falling from a high of 465 in Feb 2011, it appears that Copper bottomed at 193.55 on Jan 18. The advance on Mar 1 confirmed a H&S bottom. I have upped the initial price target to 231.90. An eventual test of the Oct 2015 high at 244 is likely. Factor is long one layer.

Patience … Discipline … Discipline … Discipline … Patience

March 9, 2016/by Peter Brandt

I know my sweet spot. Every trader should strive to know his or her sweet spot. We should strive to only take a trade when the market set up is in our sweet spot. We should strive to avoid trades out of our sweet spot. If you, as a trader, do not know your trade set up with great intimacy, then how in the world will you know if you are exercising patience and discipline? Once you know exactly what your sweet spot is and is not, then the real challenges begin. The real challenges for me (and it could be different for you) are different nuances of patience and discipline.

Patience to wait for just the right set up
Discipline to sit on the sidelines and not getting pulled into a trade that does not fully satisfy my requirements
Discipline to pull the trigger when the right trade comes along
Discipline to remain detached from open positions and properly manage each trade according to trade management guidelines developed over decades of market speculation
Patience to allow a position with a substantial profit potential the room and time to bear full fruit

Factor Trading – March 6th Report

March 6, 2016/by Peter Brandt

Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:

Gold
Japanese Yen
USD/NOK
Copper
GBP/CAD

A Factor Move is developing in AUD/NZD. This issue of the Factor also comments on Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and U.S. stock indexes. Read More

Layering and Trade Management

March 6, 2016/by Peter Brandt

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Factor Trading – March 6th Report

March 6, 2016/by Peter Brandt

NOTE: All future such Premium Reports will NOT be publicly available. To receive or view any of these Premium Reports in the future, you will need to be signed up on our free email list. Please register using the form at the bottom of this report.

Market Review

Factor Moves are currently ongoing in:

Gold
Japanese Yen
USD/NOK
Copper
GBP/CAD

A Factor Move is developing in AUD/NZD. This issue of the Factor also comments on Canadian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar and U.S. stock indexes.

Factor Moves in Progress

Copper (daily chart) There are several observations worthy of note on the daily Copper chart. First, note the premature breakout on Friday, Feb 26. The market broke out of the H&S bottom, but the rally could not hold. Following a premature breakout traders should be on extra alert and jump on a subsequent closing price breakout. Second, the advance and close on Monday, Feb 29 and especially on Tuesday, Mar 1, confirmed the H&S bottom. Both days served as buying opportunities. Third, for all practical purposes the target was met by Friday’s advance. I typically am conservative on determining “measured moves.” Factor is flat, having taken a crazy ride on the long side this past week.