- Posted by PeterLBrandt on May 20th, 2015 at 9:54 am
The agribusiness world does not want to believe Soybeans can return to $7.50.
But the chart shown below suggests such a decline is very possible. Factor is the only trading firm that has constructed a 2015 crop year graph.
The weekly graph is a construct shown by no other printed or online chart service. The chart displays only the 2015 Soybean crop year. The chart is constructed by only using crop year 2015 contracts on a continuation basis.
As shown, the 2015 Soybean crop year completed a massive 43-month H&S pattern in Aug 2014. The rally into the Nov 2014 high was simply a retest of this top. This H&S pattern has targets as low as $6.50, but the $7.50 to $8.25 zone is more realistic.
Assuming normal growing conditions in 2015, the fall harvest will bring all-time record Soybeans supplies to market. The daily chart of the Nov 2015 contract posted a new contract low this week and has completed an arguable 8-month descending triangle. An advance above 9.73 would cast some doubt on this interpretation. Only a close above 10.10 would negate this analysis.
Disclosure: Factor is short Soybean futures
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Peter Brandt entered the commodity trading business in 1976 with ContiCommodity Services, a division of Continental Grain Company. From his start in the commodity industry, Peter's goal was to trade proprietary funds. But, he first needed to learn the business. More »